EPL Best Bets and Predictions January 18-19:
Here are my EPL predictions for Match Day 22:
Ipswich vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
A profitable midweek slate in the Premier League with two wins and a push for the column, but there’s no time to rest with a super quick turnaround. EPL match day 22 kicks off early on Saturday. If you had told me at the start of the season this selection would be my best bet of the round, I would have thought you were mad. But here we are!
Manchester City would normally be priced up at around -700 to win this type of fixture. They are around -315 here. For me, that price is, without a doubt, still wrong. I wouldn’t back this current version of the champions at that price to beat any side, let alone their opponents here, who are always a threat on their home soil.
I have been very impressed with Ipswich since the turn of the year. I firmly believe they will stay up. They have a good manager who has them organized, set up really well and I have been keen on them in recent games, waiting for the right time to get them onside.
They ended 2024 with a superb win over Chelsea, which they won easily. They were so unlucky not to beat Fulham on the road, only ending up with a draw after conceding a penalty in added-on time at the end of the 90.
Now they play a City side that were hanging on in their midweek 2-2 draw at Brentford, a game they led 2-0 with 82 minutes on the clock. Pep Guardiola’s body language really stood out to me after that game. Running up to his players, shouting, he looked like he had completely lost the plot.
Proof, as if it was needed, that things are still far from right at the Etihad, despite big wins over West Ham and in the FA Cup. All that achieved was papering over the cracks of what is a seriously big problem.
On the pitch, every time the ball goes into the box, the defense is all over the place, and you feel the opposition will score. The only positive for them is Phil Foden, last season’s Player of the Year, scored both of the goals in midweek to incredibly double his tally for a campaign that is more than halfway complete.
The other huge factor at play here is that Manchester City play Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Wednesday. That match has been on my mind for some time. I’m sure the same applies to all connected to City. Defeat there would mean there would be a strong chance they unbelievably fail to qualify for the competition’s knockout stages. For the tournament favorites and best team in Europe going into the season, not to make the top 24 would be staggering.
On Sunday they face another one of their young players who they sold on. Liam Delap is a proper striker, with eight goals to his name in a struggling side — a real talent. Imagine alongside Cole Palmer and Julian Alvarez how much they could have helped this season. This all adds to the pressure on Pep, for the first time being questioned for his managerial decisions and transfer policy.
I will be betting Ipswich on the Moneyline at +800, but for my best be,t it is Ipswich +1.5 on the Asian Handicap. We only lose if this fragile Man City side wins by two or more goals; anything better than that will cash the ticket.
Pep’s men have only achieved that once across their last 11 road games in all competitions when they beat Leicester 2-0. They beat Wolves 2-1 in October, have drawn twice and lost the other seven games—all those outcomes good enough for us here.
EPL Pick: Ipswich +1.5 Asian Handicap at -109.
Leicester vs. Fulham
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
A straightforward pick here of Fulham to win, which is a narrow second-best bet. I was surprised to see a price of -105 about the away win here when the market opened. At the time of writing, that has been trimmed to -112 as the money starts to come, but I expect that to continue, so get on it early.
Fulham are on a different level to Leicester right now and the new manager bubble that greeted Ruud van Nistelrooy’s arrival at the King Power has truly burst—six consecutive defeats and only one win in seven and that coming against Championship side QPR in the FA Cup.
In midweek, Fulham somehow managed to lose a game they dominated against West Ham. They were excellent throughout, failed to convert a countless number of chances and gift-wrapped two of the Hammers’ three goals which came from a total of four shots!
Opportunities to bounce back don’t come much better in the Premier League than a game against Leicester. I expect the Cottagers to grab it with both hands. They have been to Chelsea and Nottingham Forest and won, and got draws at Liverpool and Tottenham. They should have beaten Manchester City but were edged out in a five-goal thriller.
The defeat to West Ham ended their nine-game unbeaten run, but their excellent manager will demand they dust themselves down and start a new sequence of positive results immediately. For me, Leicester is gone—along with Southampton—straight back to the Championship. Fulham can take full advantage of a side that concedes far too many goals and has stopped scoring them now at what is still a very attractive price.
EPL Pick: Fulham to win at -112.
Nottingham Forest vs. Southampton
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET
Nottingham Forest is having an incredible season. In midweek, they faced a huge test at home to the league leaders Liverpool, with the added pressure that people were starting to talk about them in conversations about who will win the title.
They took the lead through Chris Wood’s 13th league goal of a superb campaign, were pegged back midway through the second half, then had to fight really hard to hold on for a point, which at the time took them up to second in the table. To do that in a game where they gave up 71% possession against the current best team in the land would have taken an incredible amount of concentration and energy.
A performance like that immediately triggers me to look ahead to the next fixture and fade them. That is exactly what I would be doing. If they were playing practically any team other than Southampton. Because of that, I am actually going to side with Forest as my final selection.
The Saints are by some distance the worst team in the league right now, having picked up just six points from a possible 60, after only winning one and drawing three of their opening 20 games. I would go as far as to say they are one of if not the worst team we have ever seen in the EPL, and there have been some shockers.
Now for the problem. The hosts are priced up as -265 favorites, so we need to be a little creative to make that a price we can take as a single.
Prior to the draw with Liverpool, Forest won seven successive games across all competitions, with the last five of those victories coming without conceding a goal. This may well be tight and cagey, as was the case in the reverse fixture which ended 1-0 to Nuno’s men. One of a league-high nine occasions his team has “won-to-nil” this season. Southampton has “lost-to-nil” a league-high nine times.
Incidentally, if you cannot see “win-to-nil” listed, this is the same bet as Nottingham Forest to win and both teams to score no.
EPL Pick: Nottingham Forest to win to nil at -103.
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