CFP National Championship:
A champion will be crowned on the night of January 20 in Atlanta, Georgia. The Ohio State Buckeyes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish play in the CFP National Championship game, with the Buckeyes lined as more than a touchdown favorite.
These two teams have certainly earned their place in this game, as Ohio State has knocked off Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas, while Notre Dame has bested Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State in the first year of the expanded 12-team playoff. One more game stands between these two teams and history.
Let’s break it all down and see if there’s a good bet to be made. Also, check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.
CFP National Championship Game: Ohio State Buckeyes (-8, 46.5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
How To Watch The CFP National Championship
When: Monday, January 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
How: ESPN (alternative broadcast on ESPN2)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
Both teams had battles in the fourth quarter in the semifinals, as Notre Dame outlasted Penn State 27-24 and Ohio State used a goal-line stand and subsequent scoop-and-score to put some distance in the 28-14 final score against Texas. It was Ohio State’s first real test in the College Football Playoff after blasting Tennessee and Oregon by a combined score of 83-38 in the first two games.
Notre Dame is actually the higher-seeded team here, coming into the CFP as the No. 7, while the Buckeyes fell to No. 8 with the loss to Michigan and the happenings of conference championship weekend, of which Ohio State was not a part of for a fourth straight season.
Ohio State lost to Clemson in the 2021 National Championship Game under head coach Ryan Day. Notre Dame lost in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game to Alabama under Brian Kelly. They haven’t been the National Champion since 1988 since Lou Holtz led the team to a perfect 12-0 record, a fascinating coincidence given the beef between Day and Holtz.
Now, for the game itself, there are a few keys/questions:
First, how does Notre Dame move the football? The Irish have averaged 25.7 points per game, but they’ve hardly been explosive. Ohio State’s run defense ranks third in Rush EPA/play per CFB Graphs. Against No. 4-ranked Penn State last time out, the Irish had 2.8 yards per carry. Against No. 8 Georgia, the Irish had 4.2, but a Riley Leonard scramble for 32 yards skewed that number. No other ball carrier had a tote longer than eight yards and the Irish had 3.4 YPC without that Leonard scamper.
Leonard has thrown for 514 yards in the three CFP games with a 3/3 TD/INT ratio and he’s been sacked six times. He also represents a big step down from Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers, the last two QB Ohio State has beaten.
Second, how does Ohio State free up Jeremiah Smith? Do they even need to? The Buckeyes beat the Longhorns largely without Smith, who had one catch for three yards. Per CFB Graphs, Notre Dame leads the nation in Dropback EPA/play (Ohio State is second). The Fighting Irish are also a top-five run defense. The bee in Day’s bonnet from Holtz calling out Ohio State’s toughness led to a miserable gameplan and an inefficient offensive effort when these two teams played in South Bend last season, as the Buckeyes were gifted a chance to win late and took advantage.
So, third would be what does Ohio State’s gameplan entail? The Buckeyes seemed to employ too much of the “Michigan script” in the last game, with a lot of screens and horizontal throws coupled with runs up the middle. They got bailed out with the TreVeyeon Henderson home run right before halftime and the play that forever made Jack Sawyer a Buckeyes legend. Otherwise, the plan of attack from OC Chip Kelly left A LOT to be desired. Which version of the Buckeyes do we get here? Which version can we get here with Notre Dame’s defensive prowess?
Notre Dame can’t beat Ohio State vertically and their best runner right now is Leonard with Jeremiyah Love’s knee injury and a playoff no-show from Jadarian Price. I’m not sure Ohio State will beat Notre Dame vertically either. They have better playmakers all around the field, something that hasn’t been quite as clear in the Irish’s first two CFP games. It was a thing against Penn State, who ran for over 200 yards and nearly five yards per carry, but Drew Allar was horrible.
Ohio State should win this game. I’m less convinced they cover the spread, even though I don’t think Notre Dame scores much here, though, so the Under 46.5 is my pick.
Pick: Under 46.5
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