Uncertainty about both quarterbacks has dominated the storylines this week in advance of the NFC Wild Card Game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. We haven’t seen Jalen Hurts in a few weeks after he suffered a concussion in Week 16 against the Commanders following just four pass attempts and 12 snaps. Meanwhile, Jordan Love left Green Bay’s Week 18 game against the Bears with elbow discomfort and has been working through that.
There is probably some gamesmanship from both sides here. It’s the playoffs. Both guys will play. But, it is fair to acknowledge the fact that Love may not be 100% and Hurts may be shaking off a little rust in more ways than one.
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How To Watch Packers vs. Eagles
When: Sunday, January 12th at 4:30 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA
Channel: FOX
Packers vs. Eagles Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, January 9th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Eagles -225, Packers +185
Spread: Eagles -4.5 (-110), Packers +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 45.5 (-108), Under 45.5 (-112)
Check out our Packers vs. Eagles matchup page!
Packers vs. Eagles Analysis
The uncertainty in the news has played out a bit in the betting markets as well. The total was in a holding pattern until there was more clarity on the two QBs. The fact that Hurts is coming back from a concussion and not an injury that affects his throwing arm is likely part of the reason why the line went from -3.5 to -4.5 and even touched -5 during the middle of the week.
Philly won the first meeting 34-29, but that was in Week 1, on a Friday night in Brazil, and Love got hurt in that game, so it seems like an irrelevant data point to pull too much insight from. What does seem relevant is that of the Packers’ 11 wins, two are against playoff teams, as they beat the Rams 24-19 without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and the Texans 24-22 in a game where CJ Stroud threw for 86 yards.
The Eagles lost the Hurts concussion game 36-33 to the Commanders and also lost to the Buccaneers. They’ve beaten the Packers, Rams, Ravens, Steelers, and split with Washington. It’s fair to wonder how much that matters in a one-game vacuum during the postseason, but it does feel like Philly’s best is better than Green Bay’s best. To me, the stats bear that out as well.
For the season, the Eagles were sixth in offensive EPA/play and the Packers were eighth. Since Week 10, the Eagles are fifth and the Packers are eighth, which also includes games started by Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee for Philadelphia.
Defensively, the story is similar. The Eagles are third in EPA/play and the Packers are fourth, but the Packers were 28th in Dropback Success Rate against, meaning teams did well with the pass relative to down and distance. If we cut the season in half again, the Eagles are tops in the NFL in EPA/play on defense since Week 10 and the Packers are fourth.
In discussing the skill players, both Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs had strong seasons, but Barkley had 5.8 yards per carry to 4.4 for Jacobs. The Packer WR group took a hit with Christian Watson’s torn ACL, as he only had 29 catches, but made the most of them with 21.4 yards per catch. The Eagles have a healthy pass-catching corps, including the return of Dallas Goedert from IR.
Packers vs. Eagles Player Props
Dallas Goedert Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
And I believe Goedert will be a factor. The Packers allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends with 970 during the regular season. Goedert got his sea legs back in the win over the Giants last week with four catches on six targets for 55 yards. There is a 170-yard game in the mix that serves as a huge outlier in all of his per-game stats, but I think he’s a reliable weapon here.
In five previous playoff games with Hurts as the starter, Goedert has 36 targets and 26 catches for 254 yards. He’s 3-2 to the Over on this number, but he’s certainly gotten enough targets and looks to have done better. I think he’s a heavy part of the script.
Packers vs. Eagles Pick
Philadelphia’s body of work and little advantages in the health department are more than enough for me to back the favorite here. This has been the best defense in the NFL in the second half of the season. To Love’s credit, he hasn’t thrown a pick in seven straight games, but the Packers are just 4-3 in that span, though their losses have been close. Philly’s running game can help them salt this one away and maybe even add on.
Bet: Eagles -4.5 (-110)
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