Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 35-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Florida (-3.5, 150)
Tennessee (14-0, ranked 1st) is undefeated and just crushed Arkansas 76-52, covering as 11.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Florida (13-1, ranked 8th) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Kentucky 106-100 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is the top team in the country a dog in this matchup? Shouldn’t Tennessee be the favorite? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the Volunteers. However, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Florida -2.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Gators, with pros fading the trendy dog Vols and instead backing the contrarian home favorite.
At DraftKings, Florida is only receiving 37% of spread bets but a hefty 71% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those interested in following the sharp move but also looking for added security in what might be a close game could instead elect to play the Gators on the moneyline at -175. At DraftKings, the Gators are receiving 42% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros playing Florida to win straight up.
Florida has the superior offense, averaging 88 PPG compared to 80 PPG for Tennessee. The Gators are also a buy-low unpopular home favorite off a loss against a sell-high popular undefeated team. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 11-3 (79%) straight up this season and 145-39 (79%) straight up with a 15% ROI since 2021.
8 p.m. ET: Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-3, 147.5)
Kansas State (7-6) has dropped four of their last five games and just fell to TCU 63-62 but managed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Oklahoma State (8-5) has lost two in a row and just got crushed by West Virginia 69-50, failing to cover as 8-point road dogs.
This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Oklahoma State rise from -1.5 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Cowboys at home. At DraftKings, Oklahoma State is only receiving 47% of spread bets but a whopping 76% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of a close margin that may not cover the spread could instead play the Cowboys on the moneyline at -150. The Cowboys have a notable edge at the free throw line (74% vs 67%). Oklahoma State is 5-1 at home this season. Kansas State is 0-3 on the road.
10 p.m. ET: Michigan at UCLA (-2.5, 141.5)
Michigan (11-3, ranked 24th) has won three straight and just took down USC 85-74, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, UCLA (11-3, ranked 22nd) has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Nebraska 66-58, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with UCLA listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The Bruins are currently being juiced up -2.5 (-115), and have risen to as high as -3.5 briefly at some shops before falling back down to -2.5. We’ve never seen this line fall down to -2. Reading between the lines, all liability seems to be on the short home favorite Bruins. At DraftKings, UCLA is taking in 61% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars. At Circa, UCLA is receiving 50% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of UCLA. Once again, those looking to protect themselves in the event of a short UCLA win would be wise to consider the Bruins on the moneyline at -150. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 11-3 (79%) straight up this season and 145-39 (79%) straight up with a 15% ROI since 2021.
UCLA has the better defense (4th in adjusted efficiency vs 18th) and takes better care of the ball (148th in turnover percentage vs 334th). The Bruins are also a buy-low favorite off a loss against a sell-high dog in a three-game winning streak. UCLA is a perfect 8-0 at home this season.
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