NFL Playoff Betting Trends and Systems:
The end of the NFL regular season is always bittersweet. We know the majority of football season is over, yet we still have the highest stakes games to look forward to. Over the last seven years for VSiN, I have dedicated my NFL feature articles at this time of year to covering each and every round and game in-depth, focusing on past trends and systems that have developed, all to cash tickets. I have decided to alter that strategy a bit in 2025, breaking these pieces into a more focused attack. For this first piece, I will unveil some overall playoff betting trends and systems. Of note, much of this is brand new, and I have never shared it before. I will still offer the round-by-round angles, the weekly Analytics Reports, and my shared champions traits and Super Bowl stat props piece in separate releases.
With VSiN roaring into 2025 with record-high readership and a new agreement with Sirius, it’s a perfect time to build on the momentum and set out to find some new material for this year’s postseason. Plus, I can’t remember a recent postseason that fans and bettors were so excited for. It should be a fantastic month of football. I am thrilled at what I was able to dig up, specifically the statistical systems. These angles should help us gain playoff profits in 2025.
Enjoy the information, and be sure to stick with VSiN and me all the way through the Super Bowl for the best in actionable analysis of the NFL playoffs.
Following the Line/Total Moves
Over the last five seasons, bettors have struggled in the NFL playoffs at a rate of 21-26 ATS (44.7%) when moving opening lines toward one team or the other. This is a definite shift from years prior, and it may coincide with the expansion of regulated markets, allowing more public action in this recent stretch. If you’re unfamiliar with the situation I am describing here, this is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens at home team -3 and closes at home team -2, it is assumed that bettors favor the road team. For 2025, early wild card action as of Monday afternoon was favoring Philadelphia and the LA Rams. You will need to follow these all the way until kickoff of each game if you plan on utilizing the strategy.
More advantageous recently has been the following of bettors on totals in NFL playoff games. Over that same period of the last five playoff seasons, bettors are 30-23-1 (56.6%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. For this weekend, the totals were fairly volatile early, with all six wild card games showing early moves. There was upward movement on the Denver-Buffalo, Washington-Tampa Bay, and Minnesota-LA Rams contests and consensus downward movement in the other three games, all moving at least 1.5 points since opening. However, watch closely for all six games. Often, the totals are impacted most by winter weather as forecasts are sorted out for each game.
Line Range/Matchup Betting Systems
A few interesting line range and matchup-specific systems have developed in recent playoff seasons. Take a look at those, as well as the games that will be applying for each in the upcoming wild card round:
– Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS run heading into the 2025 postseason. This trend dates back to 2016.
The last six of these such games have been in the wild card round, and those home dogs are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. For 2025, we can assume that the Texans and Rams will be in the home dog role come kickoff.
– The most vulnerable home teams in recent NFL playoffs in terms of covering lines have been those priced in the -7 to -9.5 line range, as they are 28-10 SU but just 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) since 2011.
There seems to be a motivation for these sizeable underdogs to earn respect in their playoff games. These games wind up being much more competitive than the experts project. For 2025, as of Monday 1/6, note that Buffalo is an 8.5-point favorite over Denver.
– Double-digit home favorites have been nearly automatic both in terms of winning and covering point spreads in recent playoff seasons, going 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%). These games have also gone 11-5-1 Over the total with the host team putting up 33.5 PPG.
These teams were dominant in the regular season and earned the respect of being a double-digit playoff favorite. In most cases, they simply overwhelm the lesser opponent. Baltimore currently stands as a 10-point favorite over Pittsburgh for the Saturday night game.
– In the last 26 NFL playoff games matching divisional opponents, home teams have gone 14-12 SU but just 9-17 ATS (34.6%). This trend dates back to 2003.
This obviously contradicts the system about double-digit home favorites for the 2025 wild card round, as the only divisional matchup finds Baltimore hosting Pittsburgh. Which wins out in the end, the familiarity of opponents giving the Steelers an edge or Baltimore’s strength rating supremacy?
– There have been 30 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9%).
It would seem that home-field advantage is heightened in the postseason. In many cases, these hosts also draw motivation from being underdogs. It’s not always the “better” team that wins, particularly early in the postseason. For 2025, we have three road teams that posted better won-lost records on wild card weekend: the Chargers, Commanders, and Vikings.
– Home teams that won one or two games more in the regular season than their visiting opponent but are favored by 3 points or fewer (or are underdogs) have been very vulnerable, going 11-20 SU and 10-21 ATS (32.3%) in their last 31 playoff tries.
Oddsmakers are sort of setting the tone for these matchups, as they don’t entrust the home team enough to assign them as better than field goal favorites. Trust what they are telling you. None of the games for this weekend will apply, but they could in the latter rounds.
Team Statistical Betting Systems
Naturally, certain statistical traits have defined playoff success levels for teams in recent years. I have picked out 11 of my favorite systems below, focusing on stats teams accumulated in the regular season. I have also noted the teams qualifying for the various angles as well:
– Home teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have actually fared well in the NFL playoffs recently, going 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) since ’09.
System matches for 2025: Houston, LA Rams
– Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-26 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2009.
System matches for 2025: FADE Pittsburgh
– Home teams gaining less than 6.5 yards per pass attempt have found the playoffs tough, as they are just 21-26 SU and 15-30-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002.
System matches for 2025: NONE for 2025
– Road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous in playoffs, going 28-32 SU but 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2004.
System matches for 2025: Green Bay, Minnesota, LA Chargers, Washington
– Home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 11-11 SU but 6-15-1 ATS since 2012.
System matches for 2025: FADE LA Rams
– Home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 19-7 SU and 16-10 ATS (61.5%) since 2002.
System matches for 2025: Philadelphia
– Road teams allowing 5.9 or fewer yards per pass attempt have also been solid bets in the playoffs, going 25-26 SU but 32-18-1 ATS (64%) since 2002.
System matches for 2025: Philadelphia in any road playoff game
– Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 2-17 SU and 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 2004.
System matches for 2025: FADE LA Chargers, Washington, Pittsburgh – as well as Buffalo, Baltimore, LA Rams, and Philadelphia in any latter-round road games
– Road teams that force a lot of turnovers (>=1.8 takeaways per game) have been consistently strong betting options in the playoffs for many years, going 50-30-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2002.
System matches for 2025: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Green Bay – as well as Buffalo in any latter-round road game
– Home teams scoring 30+ points per game but not installed as double-digit favorites have not been good betting options in the postseason, going 19-14 SU but 12-21 ATS (36.4%) since 2004.
System matches for 2025: FADE Buffalo – as well as Detroit and Baltimore as non-double-digit home favorites in latter round(s)
– Road teams outscoring their home opponent offensively by 5.0+ PPG have really struggled in the NFL playoffs of late, 3-12 SU and 4-10-1 ATS since 2004.
System matches for 2025: NONE for wild card weekend
First-Time Playoff Quarterbacks
From my annual quarterback report, I have found that there is a definitive playoff angle regarding quarterback inexperience:
– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL have gone just 12-23 SU and 14-21 ATS (40%) since 2014, and 27-47 ATS (36.5%) since 2003
There have been an inordinate amount of first-time playoff starters in the last two NFL seasons, 11 in fact, including two games in which first-timers squared off against one another. Perhaps because of the high volume, they were more successful than usual, going 5-6 SU but 7-4 ATS. Consider this as you handicap the chances for first-time playoff quarterbacks like Bo Nix (Denver), Jayden Daniels (Washington), and Sam Darnold (Minnesota). The first two are underdogs in their respective games. As such, if you consider first-time playoff QB in a certain line range:
– Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game in the NFL and playing as an underdog are 9-26 SU and 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) since 2006.
Similarly, when these first-timers are matched against an experienced quarterback.
– Quarterbacks in their first playoff game are just 20-44 SU and 22-41-1 ATS (34.9%) since 2004 when matched up against an opposing QB not in their first playoff game.
The biggest difference where this experience factor comes into play is in games with point spreads in the +3 to -3 range, as these first-time QBs are just 7-21 SU and 6-21-1 ATS (22.2%) in those games. However, these guys are on a 2-game SU and ATS winning streak currently, with Daniel Jones and the Giants beating Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in 2023, and CJ Stroud and the Texans routing Joe Flacco and the Browns last year. This trend figures to apply to the Washington-Tampa Bay and Minnesota-LA Rams games.
First-Time Head Coaches
– Regarding coaches, first-time playoff coaches have been wildly more successful in recent years than quarterbacks and are currently on a 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5%) run over the last six seasons when not matched up against another rookie head coach.
These first-time coaches were 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS last year. For 2025, we have experienced playoff coaches for all 14 postseason teams, so this system will not factor in.
Playoff Drought Systems
There are a few different systems to consider based on the recentness in which teams have been in the playoffs. Take a look.
· Teams playing in their first playoff game in at least two seasons against a repeat playoff team from the prior season are just 13-28 SU and 16-25 ATS (39%) over the last 12 seasons and 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) since 2004.
There were six teams that went into the 2024 wild card playoffs on a “drought,” and four of them played one another. The other two were 1-1 SU and ATS. For 2025, the teams that weren’t in the playoffs last year are LA Chargers, Denver, Washington, and Minnesota. The Broncos drought has been the longest since 2016.
· On the road, these “drought” teams are an ugly 9-30 SU and 12-26-1 ATS (31.6%) since 2007 in wild card games. At home, the teams are 19-16 SU and 18-17 ATS. For 2025, all four of the drought teams (LA Chargers, Denver, Washington, and Minnesota) are on the road.
· In the last 20 wild card games matching teams that weren’t in playoffs prior year, home teams are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since 2006.
This powerful system will not be in play this season unfortunately.
Rematch Playoff Systems
I have found that analyzing earlier season games between teams leads to some successful playoff rematch systems. Consider these as you handicap all of the postseason games this season:
– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent are on an 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS (35.3%) skid in the playoffs when hosting that same opponent. However, they were 2-0 SU and ATS in 2024 so perhaps we are witnessing a shift in this trend.
This system won’t apply on wild card weekend or the divisional round. Perhaps it could in the conference championship games, specifically in a potential Buffalo-Kansas City matchup.
– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent by 21 points or more are just 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS in the playoffs since 2012, including 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home.
The thought is that a blowout loss of that nature is hard to overcome in the next meeting. There are no games that apply yet, but in 2023, the Chargers qualified on this and lost at Jacksonville.
– Teams that lost the prior same-season game versus an opponent and were then favored in the playoff contest are just 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS since 2017.
No plays for this weekend, but keep in consideration for the divisional and championship rounds. Again, a potential Buffalo-Kansas City matchup could meet the criteria.
Summary
Hopefully, by separating the focuses of these playoff articles, it helps you take in some of the more important angles I have uncovered. The playoffs are a different animal in terms of handicapping, but studying the past teams, trends and systems that have been successful in recent years can certainly help point you in the right direction. Watch for more from me in the coming weeks regarding the NFL postseason, notably round-by-round trends, futures articles, and of course, my best bets for each ensuing weekend as we drive toward Super Bowl 58 in New Orleans. Good luck.
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