EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 26:
Here are my EPL best bets for the matches on Boxing Day this Thursday:
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Thursday, 10:00 a.m. ET
It’s the holiday season, which means even more soccer in the UK and a full round of Premier League fixtures split across Boxing Day and the 27th. My best bet comes from one of the 10 a.m. kickoffs on Thursday. I am siding with one of the surprise packages of the season so far.
I’ve been pretty negative about Bournemouth and not quite buying into the hype surrounding them, even being asked what they have got to do to impress me. Going to Old Trafford and easily winning 3-0 may well have swung it.
I know Manchester United are in dismal form, not the team of old and in a transition period, but that Cherries performance was very good. They’ve started to perform consistently well and are well-managed by someone who is going places.
It would not surprise me to see Andoni Iraola linked with the Manchester City job when it becomes available, even though they will likely go with a bigger name. Finish this season by getting Bournemouth European soccer, and he will be very much sought after – even if it is not destination Etihad.
Iraola is seeing his side end the year strong. No defeat across the last five games, winning four of those, including victories over United, as mentioned, and Tottenham, to add to earlier wins against Manchester City and Arsenal.
Crystal Palace gave it a shot against the Gunners but ultimately were well beaten 5-1 at home, as predicted in this column last weekend. They looked leggy, and my main reasoning for backing Arsenal was that the Eagles were asking the same players to go again with little left in the tank.
Oliver Glasner has little room for rotation, so there will only be one or two changes. You can only go to the well so many times. That is starting to show, especially with a couple of key players like Eze and Wharton still unavailable because of injury.
It is incredible to see Bournemouth in fifth place, and a win here could even lift them up to the Champions League places. I certainly believe they have the makings of a top-six side.
Money is coming for them, and although the plus money about them winning this is gone, the -105 that is currently available still looks really good value to me.
EPL Best Bets: Bournemouth to win at -105.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa
Thursday, 10:00 a.m. ET
It’s a rare dip into a player market for me and a striker in brilliant form. Alexander Isak is in the top bracket of scorers currently playing in the Premier League, but one that you can still get very attractive odds to get on the scoresheet.
An out-of-form Erling Haaland, who has one goal in his last six matches and three in the last 12, is priced at -167 to score against that tight, miserly Everton defense. Mo Salah is -210 to score against Leicester, and even Gabriel Jesus, who at the weekend scored his first league goals of the season in his 14th appearance, is -115 to go back-to-back.
Whereas Isak is +110 to score at home to Aston Villa. A fixture that historically has goals, Newcastle scored eight in the two games last season, with Isak getting two when the sides met here at St. James’ Park.
He comes into this match in brilliant form, having scored in each of his last four league games, including a sensational hat trick at the weekend. The Swede was unstoppable, scoring his three goals from five attempts, all on target. His first came inside 26 seconds, the fastest away goal in the competition for the Magpies. He added a second before the break and completed his first treble for the club in the 54th minute.
Only Palmer (11), Haaland (13) and Salah (15) have more Premier League goals this season, but with nine in his last nine appearances, Isak is closing in fast. Newcastle have been creating so many chances and have recorded two 4-0 wins in the space of seven days, with a 3-1 cup victory sandwiched in between.
They play a Villa side that have lost their last four road games in the league and conceded 11 goals in the process. Isak has always had a great link with Anthony Gordon on the left of him, but now he has developed the same with Jacob Murphy on the right, who played a large part in his first goal against Ipswich but provided a brilliant assist for his hat trick goal.
EPL Best Bets: Alexander Isak to score at +110.
Wolves vs. Manchester United
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
I’m ending my festive picks with a big price selection! Wolves to win on the Moneyline at +290.
I am so surprised at this price. Manchester United were awful at the weekend when getting swept aside by Bournemouth at Old Trafford, and they have been consistently bad for some time now.
People point towards metrics, expected goals, possession and chances created, but if you can’t put the ball in the back of the net or keep it out of your own, you are in trouble. This season has already become about surviving, getting to the summer, getting rid of the deadwood, and then spending big on players that fit the new manager’s system.
For Wolves, it is all about the present. They must win. Vitor Pereira has come in and hit the ground running, landing a great result in his first fixture in charge before immediately declaring his side were staying in the Premier League.
I have thought for a while Wolves are a good side, but Gary O’Neil had enough. He couldn’t get over the fact his top players were sold in the summer and had little money to spend on replacements. That hangover continued until he lost his job.
Having avoided suspension (so far) for an incident after the Ipswich defeat, Matheus Cunha showed his class in the 3-0 win at Leicester. He scored the third goal but was a constant threat and created three chances for his teammates.
Off the back of their best performance and result of the season, in the first home game in charge of a new manager who has breathed life back into the club, the price of +290 is huge. In fact, it is borderline disrespectful, especially against an opponent in disarray. Showing no new manager bounce, they got embarrassed 3-0 at home at the weekend and have lost three of their last four league games.
EPL Best Bets: Wolves to win at +290.
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