Early NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:
The dogs barked back in a big way in NFL Week 10, going 11-3 ATS with six outright winners. The main issue for many of this week’s favorites was offense, and there were two epically bad performances that need to be highlighted, one by a dog and one by a favorite.
The Jaguars put up just 143 yards of offense with starting quarterback Trevor Lawerance on the bench. They amazingly covered thanks to the interception train that Sam Darnold kept shoveling coal into all game. It should have been a Vikings blowout. They ran 82 plays to the Jags’ 43 while holding a +1.6 advantage in yards per play. The lack of red zone efficiency (0-for-5) and the Darnold interceptions kept this inside the number.
The other culprit, the Chicago Bears, is more troubling. While the Vikings tout one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Patriots defense has been soundly beaten nearly every week and had been called out by their head coach for being soft twice in the three prior weeks. Against that defense, the Bears, who were favored by six points, gained just 142 yards and had just one more first down (10) than sacks allowed (9). Moving on from offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a move they made on Tuesday morning, won’t give this team much of a boost. Since losing to the Commanders on a Hail Mary, they have been outscored 48-12 without scoring a touchdown and now host the Packers coming off a bye.
Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:
Move them up: Arizona Cardinals
Congratulations to the Cardinals! I started writing this column last season and had never picked the same team “move them up” in back-to-back weeks. The Cardinals have officially taken that honor.
This week’s upgrade was, again, due to both sides of the ball. On offense, Kyler Murray put together one of the best single-game EPA scores I have ever seen while facing a Jets defense that looks like a shell of what we expected preseason. Murray was 22-for-24 and added two rushing touchdowns in three attempts. His playmakers jumped off the screen with Trey McBride, James Conner and Marvin Harrison Jr. leading the way.
On the defensive side, the Cardinals seemed to live in the backfield for a second straight week. Safety Budda Baker notched one of the three Cards’ sacks and three of their five tackles for loss while holding the Jets to 207 total yards of offense despite them being in chase mode much of the game.
Move them down: Dallas Cowboys
Now that it is official and the Cowboys are Dak-less for the rest of the season, they get the full-time downgrade and land in this spot. There was a big narrative last week around the downgrade from Prescott to backup Cooper Rush. The issue with that was that Rush played with a much better supporting cast in his previous starts. This version of the Dallas’ offensive line, running backs and wide receivers is drastically different than what he was playing with in prior seasons, and his limitations were on full display against Philadelphia on Sunday.
The defense has a chance to improve as it gets healthier, but I don’t see Dallas fixing its offensive issues.
Early Week 11 NFL Best Bet:
We got ahead of the numbers last week on “Ready, Set, Bet” and it looks like we did again this Sunday. I played Denver -118 ML, Browns +2.5 and Packers -6. Of the three, the Packers are still widely available at that number.
For the look-ahead bet this week, I do like the Pack, especially because it looks like Matt Eberflus is keeping his job as Bears head coach for now, but let’s jump on the Under in Minnesota vs. Tennessee. For all their struggles on offense of the ball, the Titans’ defense has still been solid. Likewise, the Vikings’ defense should have another strong outing this week against below-average quarterback play.
Week 11 NFL Best Bet: Vikings-Titans Under 40
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