UFC Fight Night Predictions:
Edmonton hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night production, where an exuberant crowd, the larger 30-foot Octagon, and 14 scheduled mixed martial arts fights will excite fans. Preliminary action begins at 2:00 p.m. PT.
Last week, favorites continued their record-setting pace by realizing an 11-2 result, pushing favorites to 301-125-13 or 68.5%. This is as high a favorite rate as I have ever witnessed in my 20-plus years of chasing UFC underdogs!
Digital results were reduced by a unit with Kamzat Chimaev’s destruction of Robert Whittaker. Results this year stand 24-22 +7.65u despite the chalk parade thus far in 2024.
Brandon Moreno -150 vs. Amir Albazi +130
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
This main event pits the number two-ranked flyweight against its number three-ranked athlete.
Albazi, an Iraqi purple belt in BJJ, is 17-1 and ranked third in the division. He is a furiously paced striker/grappler who has finished 14 of his 17 previous opponents.
After competing against nominally ranked fighters in the division, Albazi stepped up in class in his last fight in June of 2023 to squeak out an oh-so-close decision against Kai Kara-France. I can tell readers that almost everyone who viewed the fight scored it for France, as did 19 of 21 press attendees.
Brandon Moreno is a Mexican hero for being the first to capture a UFC title for Mexico. He’s put himself through a torrid pace over the last seven years or so, fighting the who’s who of the division and besting all comers, save for a recent loss to Brandon Royval. That fight convinced Moreno to go away for some time to refresh his mind, allow his body to recuperate, and reinvigorate the ‘fight’ in him.
Moreno is the second-ranked fighter in the division. He’s two inches taller and has the same reach advantage, but he’s a year younger than Albazi.
Size, experience, depth of competition faced, and well-rounded mixed martial arts aptitude all point me to Moreno in this five-round fight.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -200
Mike Malott -240 vs. Trevin Giles +195
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Low-hanging fruit.
Trevin Giles is a journeyman welterweight talent who has been given incredibly difficult fights recently. After a victory against a similarly versed foe, he has been finished by two absolute killers.
Giles is a former police officer, so he always earns my respect, but he’s been exposed to dangerous, more pedigreed athletes in those last two bouts—one submitted him, the next knocked him out.
Now, he is assigned a date this Saturday to face a Canadian killer who was exposed in his last fight and is ready for a major bounce.
Mike Malott is the former top-15 athlete in the division before Neil Magny, the current number 15, finished him in Toronto in January. He gets a return fight in Canada against an athlete who seems ideally placed there.
This is a poor spot for Giles, as the UFC seems set on allowing Malott every opportunity to matriculate his way back into the welterweight rankings.
UFC Fight Night Best Bet: Malott -240
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds Over -140
UFC Fight Night Best Bet: Lean Over
Jhonata Diniz -180 vs. Derrick Lewis +155
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Two ships passing in the night?
Diniz is a brazen Brazilian heavyweight. At 8-0 He’s shown himself to be a fast, powerful striker, having KO’d seven of his eight professional victims.
However, Diniz, 2-0 in the UFC, steps up aggressively here to face ‘the Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis, so he understands this opportunity offers both high risk and high reward.
Lewis is the all-time KO king in the UFC. He is more athletic than most give him credit for, and for six or seven minutes, provided any fight remains standing like this one figures to, Lewis is as dangerous a heavyweight fighter as there is.
There is a reason this fight is situated where it is!
Props are not out, but the total is, and it’s 1.5 Rds. Under -145, which leads me to believe that one of these two is getting dusted.
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday at midday Pacific Time. Grab all my final UFC releases there.
Enjoy the hostilities, and thank you for reading.
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