MLB Bullpen Betting System Update:
VSiN readers are familiar with my affection for betting teams with the best bullpens and fading those with the worst relief staffs. Unfortunately, the 2024 season has proven it isn’t a foolproof strategy, as while still keeping my bankroll afloat, my usual reliable game-by-game bullpen systems have been off as far as their usual production levels are concerned.
However, one strategy from this belief that can still not be denied is that you will do well by backing the highest-rated teams overall and by fading the worst-rated bullpens. In fact, as we enter play on Monday, August 19th, my top two rated bullpens, Cleveland and Milwaukee, are the #2 and #1 teams in the league in overall betting profit for the season. At the same time, the team with the worst-rated bullpen, the White Sox, is far and away the leading money loser in terms of betting units in 2024. I have more on this just below, plus a full MLB Bullpen Systems Update to follow.
At the current time, only eight MLB teams are profitable for the season, and only two of them have netted more than 10 units for the season. Those two teams are the ones I just mentioned: Cleveland and Milwaukee. I have chosen not to go beyond that in terms of sharing more highly ranked successes as the Braves, for as much as their bullpen is ranked #4 on my list right now, have eaten away at any overall group profits for an expanded top teams list. However, the bottom quarter of the league’s 30 teams, or the eight worst bullpens in the league right now according to my ratings, have lost a combined -105.17 units. Had you been fading these eight teams all season long, you would be up about 80 units. Scroll to the bottom of the article to find out which teams those are.
For those of you perhaps new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or in the least, minimize losses. It has done so in every year I have shared the logic. This season has been a somewhat volatile one for the “easiest” angle, and although we still remain in negative territory for this simplest of the systems, I have preached that diligent patience is key to letting this methodology bloom.
This past summer, some VSiN readers were perhaps looking for a shortcut asked what would take time out of the process. That led to what I call “THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM.” You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent that you would have netted +45.66 units in 2023. That is a pretty nice 2.2% return for a very simple yet very fundamentally sound methodology. The units lost for this year have fallen to a season low of -85.81 after a summer of disappointing results. Unfortunately, what I have learned this year is that the easiest is never the best. Looking at the “easiest way” results since my last bullpen update by day:
Monday 8/12: 4-5, -3.21 units
Tuesday 8/13: 7-6, +0.58 units
Wednesday 8/14: 9-5, +3.7 units
Thursday 8/15: 4-2, +2.45 units
Friday 8/16: 5-6, -5.15 units
Saturday 8/17: 6-5, +0.28 units
Sunday 8/18: 6-7, -2.77 units
Overall, the last seven days produced a record of 41-36 for -4.12 units, leaving us at –85.81 units for the season. This is well below the usual level of return. Though I will still be tracking this angle for my records, I wouldn’t endorse playing this “easiest” angle anymore for all games and won’t be posting them in the Analytics Reports. It just isn’t clicking this season as I’ve grown used to. Even so, when you consider that the average MLB bettor playing every game for the season would be approximately -176.5 units down with average performance, being -85.81 units down for this system is still advantageous, cutting down on over half of the overall losses.
Narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am still playing these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
I do narrow the plays with what I believe are more sharpened systems employing various situations. Here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday 8/18:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. As of 8/18 in the ’24 regular season, they are 885-786 for -85.81 units, well below usual standards after several losing weeks in a row, and as such, I have removed it from the Analytics Reports from here on out. I will continue to track the results for my own records and share them with you in this piece.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/19, the record of this angle has dipped into negative territory at 85-34 for -1.73 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 97-52 for -18.27 units and a ROI of -12.3%.
Fading an overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 54-34 since opening day 2024 and has lost -18.93 units, an ROI of -21.5%, solid results once again.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 271-322 record for -12.36 units (ROI -2.1%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 243-258 record, for +6.92 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
Worse bullpens struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 160-181 for -10.57 units. The three-game teams are 79-82 for +2.99 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 158-148 for -29.2 units (-9.5% ROI) through Sunday, 8/18. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 156 plays on this angle in 2024 through 8/18, and these teams are 87-69 for +8.36 units.
These simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that were accumulated in games through Sunday 8/18:
Key MLB Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 8/18)
Top 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
1. CLEVELAND: 2.67
2. MILWAUKEE: 3.24
3. ATLANTA: 3.32
4. HOUSTON: 3.58
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 3.62
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 5.59
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5.01
28. TORONTO: 4.94
27. TEXAS: 4.53
26. BOSTON: 4.45
Top 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 1.06
2. MILWAUKEE: 1.17
3. LA DODGERS: 1.19
4. MINNESOTA: 1.19
5. DETROIT: 1.19
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.58
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.53
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.38
27. TORONTO: 1.37
26. TEXAS: 1.37
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY METS: 10.58
2. PHILADELPHIA: 10.13
3. ATLANTA: 9.59
4. CLEVELAND: 9.58
5. CINCINNATI: 9.47
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. COLORADO: 7.48
29. KANSAS CITY: 7.54
28. TORONTO: 7.77
27. ARIZONA: 7.82
26. ST. LOUIS: 8
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. DETROIT: 0.6
2. MILWAUKEE: 0.7
3. ATLANTA: 0.75
4. HOUSTON: 0.78
5. CLEVELAND: 0.93
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. NY METS: 2.13
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.75
28. BOSTON: 1.75
27. COLORADO: 1.69
26. WASHINGTON: 1.58
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since 8/11:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. DETROIT: +19 points!
2. SAN DIEGO: +9
3. ATLANTA: +8
T-4. MILWAUKEE: +6
T-4. MINNESOTA: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. SEATTLE: -7 points
2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -5
T-3. BOSTON: -4
T-3. CINCINNATI: -4
Steve’s Current MLB Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/19)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CLEVELAND: 29
2. MILWAUKEE: 27
3. HOUSTON: 22
4. ATLANTA: 22
5. TAMPA BAY: 21
6. CHICAGO CUBS: 20
7. OAKLAND: 18
8. SAN FRANCISCO: 17
9. LA DODGERS: 15
10. SAN DIEGO: 14
11. LA ANGELS: 11
12. MINNESOTA: 8
13. NY METS: 8
14. ST. LOUIS: 7
15. CINCINNATI: 6
16. DETROIT: 5
17. NY YANKEES: 4
18. SEATTLE: 2
19. MIAMI: -1
20. PHILADELPHIA: -2
21. ARIZONA: -2
22. KANSAS CITY: -4
23. PITTSBURGH: -4
24. TEXAS: -8
25. WASHINGTON: -9
26. TORONTO: -10
27. BALTIMORE: -12
28. BOSTON: -29
29. COLORADO: -35
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -37
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on 3+ game winning streaks (TB, KC, MIL) and three teams on 3+ game losing skids (CLE, CIN, ARI).
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