UFC 305 Best Bets:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC 305 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Last Week: 2-4 (-2.11 units, -33.23%)
Article History: 74-95 (-7.38 Units, -3.948% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Last Week: 6-4 (60%)
Article History: 146-111 (56.81%)
*Listed Odds via DraftKings, bets at other books identified)
Dricus “StillKnocks” Du Plessis (-110) vs Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (-110)
Over 4.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-135)
A large percentage of the UFC audience only tunes in when there is a pay-per-view card; they go to a buddy’s house and make a party of it or hit up their local fight bar and watch with a raucous crowd. If I had to set a number, I would say 75% of these fans will be betting on Israel Adesanya at this “ridiculously” low pick ’em price vs “who?” The less locked-in MMA fans are not always wrong, but I just want to call attention to the fact that the public/casual/recreational bettor’s money is already accounted for in this line despite most of those bets not coming in until right before the fight.
Adesanya had a claim to the UFC middleweight GOAT title. He was 20-0 as a professional before he took his first L while attempting to add the UFC Light Heavyweight belt to his collection. Jan Blachowicz had a veteran performance and used his mass advantage to hold Izzy on the cage floor better than any middleweight ever could. After that, he defended his 185-pound title three more times, and then the boogeyman from his past life as a kickboxer, Alex Pereira, showed up.
Pereira went from MMA gimmick to MMA god, becoming the first opponent to finish Adesanya. The guys rematched, Izzy had a spectacular KO finish, and the competitors decided to stay out of each other’s ways (at least for now). With Pereira up at Light Heavyweight and Israel back as the baddest middleweight on the planet, most expected a vintage performance when he was scheduled to fight gatekeeper Sean Strickland. Adesanya had his worst performance in the UFC that night and lost his belt for a second time. He did not focus during that fight camp, was charged with a DUI ahead of the fight, and overall was slow and out of shape. That was the last time we saw Adesanya in the octagon.
Dricus Du Plessis is 7-0 in the UFC with five finishes. He is 21-2 as a professional mixed martial artist, with his last loss coming in October 2018 in a KSW welterweight title defense bout. Besides that, his other loss came when he was a 4-0 20-year-old challenging a 32-year-old for the EFC Middleweight belt. I point out these losses because it is easy to overlook Du Plessis’ strength of schedule and overlook that he has fought at the top continental organizations since he entered the sport. His first five UFC fights were unquestionably against opponents far from championship caliber, but that all changed when he was given a title eliminator bout versus Robert Whittaker. He was a +260 underdog versus the former champ and won that fight with a power jab. Robert Whittaker rarely gets wobbled, especially from jabs, and that performance put the division on notice. Du Plessis was virtually a pick ’em versus Sean Strickland and won via semi-controversial split decision. Per usual, Strickland landed more volume than his opponent, but Du Plessis landed the power. Despite Strickland’s stinging jabs, Du Plessis was moving forward until the final bell.
Tough, strong, fit, faster and more technical than you’d expect are how I would describe Du Plessis in the cage. He is a hard charger with a granite chin and brass-knuckled hands. He can grapple effectively because he is stronger than opponents expect. He does not tire out and his current reign as the UFC middleweight champion is not a fluke nor a product of circumstance. His championship journey began in the South African regional scene in 2013 and culminated in Toronto in January. This is his chance to put his stamp on the fight history of another country, Australia.
Israel Adesanya is one of the most electrifying strikers in UFC history, but in the octagon, Du Plessis lands 2.56 more significant strikes per minute (6.49 to 3.93), and it’s not just volume. He also is more accurate than Adesanya (50% accuracy vs 48%). That said, defensively, Adesanya is much harder to hit, only receiving 3.11 significant strikes per minute to Du Plessis 4.77 (definitely not a typical championship-level number).
When it comes to offensive grappling, Du Plessis is on a different planet than Adesanya, most of the time Izzy has no interest in tying up. Du Plessis attempts 2.5 takedowns per 5 minutes in the cage. Du Plessis is going to charge into the clinch or a blast double, and Adesanya is going to anti-grapple, a skill he has gotten very good at (77% takedown defense rate). Only 12% of his 292 minutes in the cage have been spent being controlled, an impressive number considering most of his opponents sell out to try to make it a grappling match.
DraftKings opened this line with Adesanya as the -130 favorite. Surprisingly, the betting splits on Friday Night had 75% of the handle and 69% of the bets on Adesanya at DraftKings. Why is his line tightening up? Because the sportsbook knows they are going to take a ton of public money on Adesanya on Saturday as we get closer to fight time. My best guess is they are anticipating more sharp action on Du Plessis. That said, I am the first to tell you that late line movement in MMA betting is wrong often, Du Plessis being the sharp side does not mean it will be the winning side.
At the end of the day, I worry about Adesanya truly being back. I worry about his age, too. He is now 35 years old, which is generally the red line when fighters fall out of their prime and are forced to pass the torch to the next generation. Du Plessis is just 30 years old, and if the Adesanya he faces is anything like the guy who lost to Strickland, he will run away with the belt. But if it’s the cerebral fighter who methodically breaks down opponents through his game plan, the new champ is going to be the old champ.
I also worry about Du Plessis’ typical style of moving forward at all costs. Eating Strickland’s 50% power shots is one thing, but facing Adesanya’s precision is a whole different proposition. In short, Strickland throws to hit his opponents, Adesanya throws to hurt his opponents. Additionally, Adesanya was noticeably emotional during fight week. That may be the result of an aging fighter realizing he is on the back nine of his career, and it may just be the fact Israel is an emotional guy who wears his heart on his sleeve.
I have a long history of betting on both of these fighters, and the trend is that I lose when I lose on Adesanya when I overvalue him versus tough opponents, expecting KO finishes, and I lose on Du Plessis when I fade him due to his lack of relative “UFC Experience.” My historic tendency has been to overvalue Adesanya’s attributes and underrate those that Du Plessis possesses. I’m not going to do that again, and full disclosure, when I began this handica,p I fully expected to end up on the Adesanya side. In the end, a lot of predicting this sport comes down to “what have you done for me lately?” and in Adesanya’s case, the answer is nothing.
FIGHT WINNER: Dricus Du Plessis
UFC 305 BEST BET: Dricus Du Plessis (-105), Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 (Circa)
–
Kai-Kara France (+145) vs Steve Erceg (-175)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Kai Kara-France is returning to the octagon after a long 14-month hiatus on the back of an impressive fight versus Amir Albazi. Albazi is a top-five fighter, and Kara-France landed over twice as many significant strikes, landed more significant strikes in each round, and defended eight of nine of Albazi’s takedown attempts while going two for two on his own attempts. It was a dominant performance in a fight that went to decision. But there was one problem—he lost via split decision on the scorecards. Twenty-one of 23 media scorecards on MMADecisions.com gave the fight to Kara-France, and one of the cards that went to Albazi was from WrestlingObserver.com, so take that for what it is worth. I am living in the past a bit here to make the point that Kara-France rightfully has a chip on his shoulder ahead of this co-main event.
Steve Erceg is one of the most aloof fighters in the organization. He is also the best flyweight under the age of 30 in the division (sure, Tatsuro Taira is in the conversation, too, but he needs to win vs an elite opponent whose knee doesn’t blow out mid-fight). Erceg is a powerful striker, sound wrestler, and solid defensively. He was rushed into a title shot in just his fourth fight as a member of the UFC roster and held his own versus Alexandre Pantoja, winning two rounds versus the much more pedigreed opponent.
On paper, Erceg is a much more accurate striker, but Kara-France is much better defensively with an excellent 66% significant strike defense rate. Erceg is more likely to attempt a takedown, but good luck versus this opponent who has an 88% takedown defense rate. Kara-France’s defense numbers are exceedingly impressive because he has sustained them versustop-tierr competition. He is 7-4 in the UFC, with the losses being the miscarriage of justice against Albazi, two losses to former champ Brandon Moreno, and a loss to former title challenger Brandon Royval (find this fight on ESPN+, one of my favorite flyweight bouts of all time). I handicap this as an exceedingly close fight. A healthy Kara-France is a tough task for anyone, but Erceg’s momentum-stopping accuracy and power are hard to prepare for. I can make a strong case for either guy in this one. As such, I expect one of these guys to impose their will clearly for two or three rounds, which is why I am betting either guy to win via unanimous decision.
FIGHT WINNER: Steve Erceg
UFC 305 BEST BET: Erceg/Kara-France Fight Result: Unanimous Decision (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 (DraftKings)
–
Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot (-355) vs Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (+280)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Mateusz Gamrot is a well-rounded fighter who pushes the pace through wrestling and surprises opponents with his fluid striking and kicking attacks. He is 7-2 in the UFC and 24-2 as a professional fighter. The judging gods have both taken and given to his record as he lost a close split decision to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut, then later beat Arman Tsarukyan via unanimous decision in a fight people are still arguing about on Twitter (shout out to VSiN’s Dave Ross @DRossSports). The most puzzling result on his resume is getting steamrolled by Beneil Dariush as a -250 favorite. His best win outside of beating Tsarukyan was upsetting Rafael Fiziev via leg injury TKO as a +130 dog.
Dan Hooker has been left for dead in this organization multiple times, but he keeps finding ways to turn corners and put together excellent results after bad losses. Considering he has been in the organization for ten years, the ups and downs shouldn’t be all that surprising. He spent the majority of his career as a featherweight but lost four out of five in that division between June 2020 and March 2022 (three inside the distance) and moved up to lightweight in November 2022. He is now 2-0 in this division. He knocked out Claudio Puelles as a slight favorite, then upset Jalin Turner as a +250 underdog via split decision. Hooker was huge at 145 pounds, and his six-foot frame fills out just fine now th155-pounder155 pounder. Kickboxing with the ability to threaten submissions when the fight hits the ground has always been his style and makes for exciting fights, which is why he has survived in the organization for so long despite inconsistent results.
Gamrot will test Hooker’s City Kickboxing gym’s legendary anti-grappling as he attempts 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon. Hooker will test Gamrot’s chin as he is a volume striker who generally lands a few good shots no matter the opponent.
FIGHT WINNER: Mateusz Gamrot
UFC 305 BEST BET: Mateusz Gamrot OVER 44.5 Significant Strikes (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 (BetOnline)
–
Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (+195) vs Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik (-238)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 1.5 (-180)
At this point, I have trouble calling Tuivasa a fighter; I consider him more of an entertainer (but I definitely would NOT say that to his face).He is an old-school heavyweight reminiscent of the days when UFC cards were tournaments. He has 7.5 good minutes in him max, and if he does not succeed in imposing his will, he wilts and gets finished. He is 8-7 in the UFC, but 7-2 in fights that don’t hit the 2:30 mark in the second round. That is a fun gimmick, but that does not lead to sustained success in this era of MMA. His opponents are on to his gameplan. Tuivasa is 0-4 dating back to September 2022, with all of those fights ending inside the distance.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is, has been, and will continue to be one of the more underrated heavyweights in the division. He is elite in a few areas, and below average in others, which have always stopped his ascension to the top of the UFC heavyweight heap. He is 8-5 in the UFC with a 100% KO rate in victory. He is a very good kickboxer who has better movement than the majority of the division. He possesses top-tier power, as evidenced by his 100% KO rate. He is lost as a grappler and has displayed poor fight IQ at various times in his career, namely charging straight at Alexander Volkov and allowing Jailton Almeida to grapple from the start of their fight. However, in his last fight, he showed up as an underdog versus Shamil Gaziev. He used veteran savvy to let the upstart gas out, then finished him via retirement after the fourth round. Which leads to another excellent part of Jairzinho’s skill set: his power never leaves the cage and is available from the first round until the last.
FIGHT WINNER: Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC 305 BEST BET: Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Parlay piece see below
Rozenstruik to win via KO (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to win 1 (Fanduel)
–
LI “The Leech” Jingliang (+280) vs Carlos Prates (-355)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-154)
Li Jingliang has put in his time on the UFC roster. A decade of experience has yielded an 11-6 record with eight knockout victories. His last three wins have come via KO, as an underdog of +135, +260, and +210. However, in that span, he has also lost twice—via split decision to Daniel Rodriguez and submission to Khamzat Chimaev. Despite being a slugger he has never been knocked out in his 27 fight professional career. He is by no means a world beater, but he is a gatekeeper that cannot be taken lightly.
Carlos Prates is the poster child for not giving up when you experience adversity early in your career. He had an up-and-down run at lesser organizations, starting out as a 10-6 fighter, but he is now on a nine-fight win streak with his most recent eight victories all being via first or second round knockouts. He is a Contender Series veteran and is 2-0 as a full fledged member of the UFC. Additionally, he is a member of the Fighting Nerds team which has taken this organization by storm.
That said his striking metrics are a bit concerning, he lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute with a 52% accuracy rate, but he gets hit back with 5.23 and his defense rate is a paltry 39%. He is five and a half years younger than his opponent, and has a seven-inch reach advantage. But the reach disadvantage is a problem that Jingliang has solved plenty of times in the past. I worry about Prates at this price because he likes getting into firefights, and firefights are exactly why Jingliang has five performance of the night bonus knockouts on his resume. Additionally, there are some real questions about Prates’ strength of schedule, especially during his nine-fight win streak, as none of those opponents have achieved anything of consequence in high-level mixed martial arts organizations.
FIGHT WINNER: Li Jingliang
UFC 305 BEST BET: Li Jingliang (+300) vs Prates, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3 (BetMGM)
–
Junior Tafa (-130) vs Valter “The Clean Monster” Walker (+110)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Valter Walker is most famous for being Johnny Walker’s younger brother. He had an atrocious strength of schedule before getting his shot in the UFC. I faded him versus one of the worst fighters in the division, Lukasz Brzeski, and it paid off. Now, he gets a chance at redemption versus another fighter who is at the bottom of the heavyweight division. This opponent also has a more accomplished brother in the UFC (Justin Tafa). In his debut, Walker struggled with cardio, and did not push any meaningful pace. He did mix in wrestling nicely, but he lacked the fitness to control the position and accomplish anything meaningful. He did weigh in about 10 pounds lighter ahead of this fight compared to his last which perhaps means he has been hitting the treadmill/assault bike/stair stepper.
Junior Tafa has had a lackluster 1-2 UFC career. He lost an uneventful decision to Mohammed Usman (another fighter with a brother who has accomplished much more in the UFC). He KO’d UFC heavyweight doormat Parker Porter, but then he was humbled by the highly experienced Marcos Rogerio de Lima (a short-notice fight in which he filled in for his brother Justin). Tafa is just looking for one shot. He doesn’t push pace, and he doesn’t wrestle. He just wants to land a big overhand shot and get out of there. His takedown defense rate is solid at 81%, most notably he kept Mohammed Usman to just 2/10 on his attempts. That said, if Walker does get a takedown, I don’t think Tafa has the willpower to get back up.
FIGHT WINNER: Junior Tafa
UFC 305 BEST BET: Pass
–
Josh “Kuya” Culibao (-135) vs Ricardo “Carcacinha” Ramos (+114)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Both fighters in this bout may be reaching the end of their stay in the UFC without earning impressive results very soon. Culibao is 3-3-1 in the organization and has lost his last two fights, including as a -185 favorite versus promotional newcomer Danny Silva. Ricardo Ramos has run into first-round guillotines in his last two fights. Overall, Ramos is 7-5 in the UFC, but he has lost three of his last four, and four of his last six, so the downtrend is very real and sustained.
Ricardo Ramos gets into trouble with sloppy grappling. Lucky for him, that is generally not the type of fight Culibao is looking for. Overall, Culibao makes it to the judges’ scorecard at a higher rate than Ramos, but neither guy’s finish tendencies are strong enough to elicit any sort of prop bet. Overall, I am not a fan of Culibao’s style in the cage, but Ricardo Ramos is hard to trust. There is a real path to victory for him if he establishes wrestling and control early, but his fast and loose nature with technique is hard to support.
FIGHT WINNER: Ricardo Ramos
UFC 305 BEST BET: Pass
–
Casey O’Neill (+120) vs Luana Santos (-142)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-260) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+195)
Casey O’Neill is coming off back-to-back losses as a favorite of -175 and -190. Before those losses, she was 9-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC. She was on the fast track in a women’s flyweight division, always in search of fresh blood at the top and has set her career back significantly. Three of her four UFC wins have come inside the distance. One of her losses came via armbar and the other was on the scorecards. Despite thcareer-threateningng nature of her most recent fights, she is still just 26 years old and has time to develop into a contender down the line.
Luana Santos has yet to experience defeat in the UFC. She is 3-0 in the organization with a knockout, a submission, and a decision win. She actually won just over a month ago versus Mariya Agapova and is stepping into this fight on one week’s notice, as O’Neill’s original opponent had to withdraw. Both of these fighters have only gone to the judges 33% of the time in their UFC careers. The sample sizes are far from huge, but prior to joining the UFC, they also reached the scorecards less than 50% of the time. I see a lot of value in this fight not going the distance.
FIGHT WINNER: Casey O’Neill
UFC 305 BEST BET: O’Neill/Santos Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+160) Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6 (Caesars)
–
Jack “Phar” Jenkins (-800) vs Herbert Burns (+550)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-115) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Jack Jenkins has the type of leg kicks that hurt your shins through the TV. He was quickly making a name for himself in the UFC before sustaining an arm injury versus Chepe Mariscal and tapping out mid-fight nearly a year ago. Prior to that, he had a KO win in Contender Series and two wins over more experienced fighters Don Shainis and Jamall Emmers (although this was a bit controversial, 10/10 media scorecards on MMADecisions.com went to Emmers, and unfortunately, I was on Emmers in a parlay). I fully expect this fight to be much more decisive than those two decision victories.
Herbert Burns’ agent deserves a raise, because I have no idea how this fighter is still collecting checks from MMA’s top organization. Maybe it’s a favor from the UFC because his brother, Gilbert, is a true company man. Herbert Burns is 2-3 in the UFC. He won two fights in the first round in 2020. Since then, he is 0-3, all three via KO, including a win via the rare “Exhaustion from Damage.” Jack Jenkins legitimately could get the KO via leg kicks in this fight as long as he anti-grapples like the marquee Aussies at the top of this card.
FIGHT WINNER: Jack Jenkins
UFC 305 BEST BET: Jack Jenkins via KO/Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Win (+108), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.08 (FanDuel)
Jack Jenkins Wins via KO in Round 1 or 2 (-130) (Bovada)
–
Tom Nolan (-1200) vs Alex Reyes (+750)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-270)
Tom Nolan is an emerging prospect who learned a tough lesson in his UFC debut: Every opponent you will face has the ability to hurt you. Nolan debuted as a -350 favorite and was knocked out by Nikolas Motta 1:03 into round 1. He recovered from that performance in January with a KO victory in May as a -500 favorite. He is just 24 years old and 7-1 as a professional with five victories via KO.
Alex Reyes is at least old enough to be Nolan’s uncle at age 37. He has a 13-4 record in what has been an injury-plagued career. He made his UFC debut in 2017 and was KO’d by Mike Perry in the first round. He was given his second chance in the octagon versus the upstart Charlie Campbell exactly six years after his UFC debut and was again knocked out in the first round. Six years out of fighting is a tough pill to swallow, and now he is being fed to yet another talented prospect. I really think Reyes signed a deal with the devil when he signed his UFC contract more than half a decade ago because since then, he has only experienced defeat and injuries.
FIGHT WINNER: Tom Nolan
UFC 305 BEST BET: Alex Reyes UNDER 17.5 Significant Strikes (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 (DraftKings)
–
Song Kenan (-205) vs Ricky Glenn (+170)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Song Kenan has had an up-and-down UFC career, and unfortunately for him, it has mostly been down lately. He is 1-3 in his last four fights, but I will acknowledge that all three of those losses came to very good opponents. Additionally, his win came as a +260 underdog to Rolando Bedoya. Overall, he is 5-4 in the UFC. The combined UFC record of the opponents he defeated is 1-13, so take those five wins with a major grain of salt.
Ricky Glenn is 4-5-1 in the UFC. In Contrast, the UFC record of the opponents he has defeated in the organization is 21-21. Definitely not great, but a bit stronger than what Kenan brings to the table. Like Kenan, Glenn has also lost more than he has won lately. He has been knocked out in his last two fights in the first round. His chin is a major concern, but Kenan has not had a KO win since February 2020, so it’s not like he is setting the world on fire with his striking these days.
FIGHT WINNER: Ricky Glenn
UFC 305 BET: Ricky Glenn (+170), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7 (DraftKings)
–
Stewart Nicoll (-205) vs Jesus Aguilar (+170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-135) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+105)
Stewart Nicoll is an Aussie fighter making his UFC debut. He is 8-0 with seven wins inside the distance. He has mostly fought low-level Australian organizations versus similarly inexperienced fighters. He has not faced an opponent of note yet in his career. But the same could be said for another Aussie Flyweight before making their UFC debut, Steve Erceg.
Jesus Aguilar missed weight by a pound and a half on Friday. Overall he is 2-1 in the UFC with a Contender Series win as well. He won in Contender Series as an underdog and was immediately fed to Tatsuro Taira. After that, he knocked out verified tomato can Shannon Ross in 17 seconds, then beat Mateus Mendonca as a slight underdog via split decision. Overall, he is 10-2 with one KO, six submissions, and three decision wins. Prior to reaching the top MMA organization, Aguilar defeated Edgar Chairez via submission which is solid considering Chairez is now 1-1 in the UFC. I can’t get behind the favorite in this fight. He doesn’t have the experience or pedigree I look for in newcomers.
FIGHT WINNER: Jesus Aguilar
UFC 305 BEST BET: Jesus Aguilar (+175), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.75 (Circa)
–
UFC 305 BEST BETS RECAP
- Dricus Du Plessis (-105) vs Adesanya , Risk 1.05 Units to Win 1 (Circa)
- Erceg/Kara-France Fight Result: Unanimous Decision (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 (DraftKings)
- Mateusz Gamrot OVER 44.5 Significant Strikes (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 (BetOnline)
- Rozenstruik to win via KO (-140), Risk 1.4 Units to win 1 (Fanduel)
- Li Jingliang (+300) vs Prates, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3 (BetMGM)
- O’Neill/Santos Fight Does Not Go The Distance (+160) Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.6 (Caesars)
- Parlay: Jack Jenkins via KO/Jairzinho Rozenstruik to Win (+108), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.08 (FanDuel)
- Jack Jenkins Wins via KO in Round 1 or 2 (-130) (Bovada)
- Alex Reyes UNDER 17.5 Significant Strikes (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 (DraftKings)
- Ricky Glenn (+170) vs Kenan, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.7 (DraftKings)
- Jesus Aguilar (+175) vs Nicoll, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.75 (Circa)
The post UFC 305 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya appeared first on VSiN.
