Saratoga Picks:
It’s Whitney Day from Saratoga and that means a full card of 13 races including three Grade 1’s and a Grade 2. Race 10, the Troy, will feature Cogburn, who last time out not only set the track record at this distance, but also blew away the world record. He will be a short price, but I do think that the #1 Mischief Magic and the #8 Grooms All Bizness are in with a shot! Let’s look at today’s Saratoga picks.
Grade 1 Jim Dandy, Saratoga, Race #11
This is a wildly difficult puzzle to put together, with twelve horses headed to the gate to travel a mile and an eighth over the Saratoga dirt. The favorite at post time will be the 2023 Preakness winner #3 National Treasure. He has been globetrotting this season with wins at Gulfstream and over this Saratoga track, and a loss in the Saudi Cup. He is at his best when he sets the tempo and that will not be the case today. He will get early pressure from Arthur’s Ride on the outside and a host of others making his job more difficult today.
#9 Bright Future looks to be one of the beneficiaries of that hot pace. He is coming off a nice tune-up win at Monmouth to kick off his five-year-old season and has the chance to take a big step forward here. He is two for two over the Saratoga track, including a Grade 1 win here last year, and Todd Pletcher points to these races all summer with his best horses.
#2 Disarm is back after a flat effort in the Steven Foster last time out. He is another horse with numbers that fit this group from last season who needs to prove he can run back to them. The price is right today at 15-1 to take a swing.
#5 First Mission also comes out of the Foster after running a disappointing fourth as the favorite. He’s been hyped as one of the best from the Brad Cox barn, but now is 0-2 when facing this level. The talent is there, but the price is not, just 9/2 on the morning line, for a horse that has to prove himself against Grade 1 company.
I mentioned #11 Arthur’s Ride earlier. He’s the wild card of the race. He was awesome last time out and has a ton of upside, but this is a giant step up in class. He has never run against any level to stakes company and will now take on the best in the world. That’s a tall task for anyone. He will try to clear National Treasure, and if he can, he may be able to hold the rest of this field off.
Saratoga Picks: 9-3-2-5
Bets: $50 Win #9
Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, Saratoga Race #7
Per usual, these big races on the turf will go through the European shippers and we have two studs that have made the trip across the pond. #4 Diego Velazquez makes the journey for trainer Aidan O’Brien and top jock Ryan Moore flew in to ride. That has been a killer combination over the years at Saratoga and today could be no different. He is a colt who has continued to improve over his three-year-old season. Diego has early speed, something many Europeans lack when shipping to the US, and looked dominant last time out, winning a Group 3 with ease. He is the horse to beat.
To his inside is #3 Legend of Time, the other shipper, who has already proven himself here in the US. Appleby calls on his top jock William Buick to fly in for this one, but he will need to be better to win. Last time out, he was a disappointing 3rd, but that was a paceless race. He should have more early pace to chase today, which should set him up well for a nice closing kick.
The most intriguing horse from the states is #7 Royal Majesty who missed up just a half-length to Legend of Time last race and 12-1 on the morning line. He has gotten better in each of his last five races, a trend that would need to continue for him to win today. He is another that would benefit from a hot pace today, if he gets that, he will be in the mix late.
#8 White Palomino projects to be one of those that assists with the pace today. He is breaking from the outside, which should force the hand of jockey Prat. He dug in to beat Legend of Time in the Belmont Derby after setting slow fractions but was not quite good enough to hold off Trikari that day. He is another one who will need to improve, but it’s tough to leave Chad Brown out of Saratoga turf races on days like today. He is a horse I will use underneath but not on top.
Saratoga Picks: 4-3-7-8
Bets: $50 Win – #4
Spot Plays:
Saratoga Race #8 – $50 Win #6
Saratoga Race #7 – $25 Exacta 6 / 1,8
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