MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (July 31)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Over the total is 15-1 (93.8%, +14.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 87.5%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-14 (-10.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 76-87 (-45.57 units, ROI: -28%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (+105 at PHI)

Trend: SF is 14-4 (+6.42 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons (including 11-1 (+9.38 units) at home)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-218 vs. OAK)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 130 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/30 and these teams are 73-57 for +9.54 units (7.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-218 vs PIT)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-CWS

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-245 vs. MIA), BALTIMORE (-238 vs. TOR)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-115 at NYM), TEXAS (-110 at STL), BOSTON (-105 vs. SEA), LA DODGERS (+114 at SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): WATCH FOR TAMPA BAY vs. MIA (*-245 currently)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.

System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, TEXAS, HOUSTON, COLORADO, OAKLAND

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-CWS

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: ATLANTA, ARIZONA, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, NY METS, ST LOUIS, LA ANGELS, OAKLAND

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 73-43 for -22.57 units and an ROI of -19.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-238 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (-245 vs. MIA), HOUSTON (-218 vs. PIT)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly positive at 77-29 for +2.32 units.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-198 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 229-273 record for -9.90 units (ROI -2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at CIN), LA DODGERS (+114 at SD), NY YANKEES (+102 at PHI), NY METS (-102 vs. MIN), ST LOUIS (-110 vs. TEX), OAKLAND (+180 at SF)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 203-215 record for +6.91 units (ROI 1.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. Awful day on Monday, 7/29, going 0-6 for -6.10 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at CIN), LA DODGERS (+114 at SD), NY YANKEES (+102 at PHI), NY METS (-102 vs MIN), ST LOUIS (-110 vs. TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 126-145 for -12.02 units. The three-game teams are 65-67 for +1.85 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CINCINNATI (-148 vs. CHC)
3+ games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+180 at HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 137-126 for -16.39 units (-6.2% ROI) through Tuesday, 7/30.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-245 vs. MIA), NY YANKEES (+102 at PHI)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 130 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/30, and these teams are 73-57 for +9.54 units (7.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-218 vs. PIT)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1609-1498 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.47 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-115 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (-245 vs. MIA), LA ANGELS (-142 vs. COL), ARIZONA (-180 vs. WSH)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1505-1945 (43.6%) for -191.97 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+195 at BAL), MINNESOTA (-115 at NYM), TEXAS (-110 at STL), WASHINGTON (+150 at AZ)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3249-2843 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -423.91 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-113 skid (-38.59 units, ROI: -23.7%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-138 (-60.54 units, ROI: -30.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-62 in their last 92 tries (-17.76 units, ROI: -19.3%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-163 run (+35.78 units, ROI: 10.7%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS +114 (+23 diff), TORONTO +195 (+15 diff), MIAMI +200 (+40 diff), OAKLAND +180 (+17 diff), PITTSBURGH +180 (+35 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -122 (+25 diff), ST LOUIS -110 (+30 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-MIL OVER 7 (+0.7), LAD-SD OVER 7 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-STL UNDER 9 (-0.7), CHC-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), KC-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.5), SEA-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), MIN-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ATLANTA (57-49) at (952) MILWAUKEE (61-46)
Trend: ATL is 12-5 in the last 17 head-to-head meetings vs. MIL
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-120 at MIL)

(953) WASHINGTON (49-59) at (954) ARIZONA (57-51)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (18-21, -8.00 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-180 vs WSH)

(955) CHICAGO-NL (51-58) at (956) CINCINNATI (52-55)
Trend: CHC not as good vs. LH starters (7-14, -8.94 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at CIN)

(959) TORONTO (50-58) at (960) BALTIMORE (64-44)
Trend: TOR trending Over vs. divisional teams (23-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(961) KANSAS CITY (59-49) at (962) CHICAGO-AL (27-83)
Trend: CWS awful vs. RH starters (20-69, -41.32 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

(965) MIAMI (39-68) at (966) TAMPA BAY (55-52)
Trend: TB good in interleague play so far (20-10, +8.78 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-245 vs MIA)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (64-45) at (968) PHILADELPHIA (65-42)
Trend: NYY is 15-4 this season as a road underdog
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+105 at PHI)

(969) MINNESOTA (58-48) at (970) NEW YORK-NL (57-50)
Trend: MIN better during the day (31-18, +8.20 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-115 at NYM)

(971) TEXAS (52-56) at (972) ST LOUIS (55-52)
Trend: STL trending Over vs. AL teams (16-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(975) COLORADO (38-70) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-60)
Trend: COL bad on the road (14-41, -15.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+120 at LAA)

(977) OAKLAND (45-64) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (53-56)
Trend: OAK not as good vs. RH starters (32-53, -11.62 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+180 at SF)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) CHICAGO-NL (51-58) at (956) CINCINNATI (52-55)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-14 (-10.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at CIN)

Trend: CIN is 17-9 (+7.40 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-148 vs. CHC)

(959) TORONTO (50-58) at (960) BALTIMORE (64-44)
Trend: BAL is 17-3 (+12.92 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-238 vs. TOR)

(965) MIAMI (39-68) at (966) TAMPA BAY (55-52)
Trend: TB is 2-0 (+2.00 units) this season vs. NL teams with starter Taj Bradley
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-245 vs. MIA)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (64-45) at (968) PHILADELPHIA (65-42)
Trend: NYY is 8-3 (+6.74 units) as an underdog with starter Nestor Cortes in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+105 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is 7-14 (-10.13 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-125 vs. NYY)

(969) MINNESOTA (58-48) at (970) NEW YORK-NL (57-50)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 15-4 (+10.05 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently)

Trend: Luis Severino is 6-14 (-6.83 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-105 vs. MIN)

(971) TEXAS (52-56) at (972) ST LOUIS (55-52)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-7 (+11.92 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-110 at STL)

(975) COLORADO (38-70) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-60)
Trend: COL is 5-15 (-6.26 units) on the road with starter Kyle Freeland in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+120 at LAA)

(977) OAKLAND (45-64) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (53-56)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 5-13 (-5.95 units) as a night underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+180 at SF)

Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Mon 7/29-Wed 7/31
Trend: Over the total is 15-1 (93.8%, +14.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 87.5%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/1)

The post MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (July 31) appeared first on VSiN.