UFC Best Bets:
VSiN Primetime producer Britton Hess offers his UFC 304 best bets and puts pen to paper (well, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his thoughts and UFC predictions for every fight on the docket.
BET HISTORY
UFC Vegas 94: 6-5 (+5.13 Units, 47.85% ROI)
Article History: 68-75 (+6.33 Units, 4.05% ROI)
PICK ’EM HISTORY
UFC Vegas 94: 7-4 (63.63%)
Article History: 126-94 (57.27%)
Leon “Rocky” Edwards (-250) vs Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad (+205)
Over 4.5 Rounds (-215) | Under 4.5 Rounds (+165)
Leon Edwards will be defending his welterweight belt for the third time. His first title defense was against Kamaru Usman, the man he took the belt from. He won via majority decision. His second defense was not competitive, and Leon Edwards was never in danger vs. Colby Covington, who had no right to be challenging for a belt. Now Edwards is fighting another peaking fighter in Belal Muhammad, who is perhaps the most qualified belt challenger in recent history, as he is riding a 10-fight unbeaten streak.
Edwards is the champion of this division because he has the best defense. He is hard to touch, only absorbing 2.34 significant strikes per minute, and he has a 70% takedown defense rate. In his two title defenses, his takedown defense rate was up at 76%, and Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman are arguably the two best wrestlers in the division. But Edwards is not solely a defensive fighter, he possesses a sophisticated striking attack and deceptive power that he unleashes at opportunistic times (see his head kick KO of Kamaru Usman to win the belt).
Belal Muhammad is probably the most qualified title challenger we have seen in the UFC for several years. Rarely does a fighter make it 10 fights unbeaten before getting their shot to wear the belt, but Belal has been held back by his style. He is not much of a finisher, he mostly wins through volume not power striking. Additionally, he is a relentless wrestler, but when the fight is on the ground, he is much more interested in keeping position than chasing a submission. In his 18-fight UFC career, he has landed 34 takedowns but has only one win via submission. His record in the UFC is 14-3, 1 NC, with the one NC coming against none other than Leon Edwards. That fight was on March 13, 2021, and was called a no-contest after an incidental eye poke ended Muhammad’s night 18 seconds into round 2. In that 5 minutes and 18 seconds of fight time, we saw Leon Edwards land 19 significant strikes to Belal Muhammad’s 8. Edwards was 0/1 on takedown attempts, and Muhammad was 0/0.
Muhammad has definitely improved since these two fought their round 3 years ago, but so has Edwards. My handicap of this fight all comes down to the path to victory, and frankly, I don’t think Muhammad has one. Edwards has better striking accuracy, better striking defense, a two-inch reach advantage, a three-inch height advantage, experience defending takedowns from the best wrestlers in the division, he is three years younger (Belal is 36, over the key age of 35), and this fight will be in front of an extremely hostile crowd in Manchester, England. To take the belt from a champion, you need to win in convincing fashion, and I do not think this is the right matchup for Muhammad to impose his will.
When this line opened at DraftKings on July 4th, Leon Edwards was a -198 favorite. That price did not last long, and by the time the fight goes off, I expect him to be closer to a -275 favorite than -250.
FIGHT WINNER: Leon Edwards
UFC 304 BEST BET: Leon Edwards (-250) vs Muhammad, Risk 2.5 Units to Win 1
–
Tom Aspinall (-395) vs Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (+310)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+145) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-188)
We haven’t seen a surge in popularity around a UFC heavyweight since Francis Ngannou strung together a six-fight finish streak upon joining the roster. At this point, Aspinall’s star feels brighter than Ngannou’s. Like the former heavyweight champ, Aspinall is a finisher, and he is also active on social media, engaging fans and growing his brand. There is a ton to like in Aspinall’s game. He has absurd hand speed for a guy his size, and most of his knockouts feature him landing multiple headshots before his opponent can react. He has a 100% finish rate in victories, with ten knockouts and four submissions. He has three losses, which all deserve asterisks; his first came versus a much more experienced fighter via heel hook when Aspinall was 22 years old in his 4th pro fight. He lost another fight due to illegal 12-to-6 elbows (which were recently ruled legal by NSAC), and he also lost to Curtis Blaydes via “KO” which was a freak knee injury 15 seconds into the fight on July 23rd 2022. The losses are excusable, and the wins are undeniable (13/14 finishes in the first round!), and the hype is justified.
Meanwhile, Curtis Blaydes is a relatively unheralded fighter despite being 13-4 in the UFC, with all four losses coming to guys who either held or fought for a UFC heavyweight title (and he has one No Contest due to a KO being canceled due to a failed marijuana test, good stuff Texas!). Blaydes is potentially the best wrestler in the heavyweight division, and in recent years he has shown great development with his hands. He is a massive guy and has legitimate power. Additionally, he is probably the most dominant fighter with top position in the entire division.
Both of these fighters are squarely in their prime, which makes the steep Aspinall odds hard to swallow. That said, Blaydes isn’t a big dog because of who he has beaten, it’s because of who has beat him. The loss to Sergei Pavlovich via KO in April 2023 sticks out because Pavlovich was Aspinall’s last opponent. Aspinall completely outclassed him with his hands in that fight. MMA math is not an exact science, but if Pavlovich’s hands were too good for Blaydes, he is presumably not going to fair well on the feet vs. Aspinall. Blaydes can win this fight by slowing it down and using his dominant wrestling. The problem is no one has ever successfully closed the distance on Aspinall in the UFC, and he has fought a few capable wrestlers. I hate this price, but I have a hard time seeing this fight going any other way than Aspinall via KO. A lot of cappers are going to stretch for value an
FIGHT WINNER: Tom Aspinall
UFC 304 BEST BET: Pass
–
Bobby “King” Green (-115) vs Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (-105)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Bobby Green is peaking in ability and popularity at age 37. He has won 3 of his last four fights and always puts on a show. He has a strike-first style with a wide karate stance and hands down at his waist. Speed and movement are his defense. His offensive striking can be categorized as fast, precise, and voluminous. He is in rare air in that he has landed 85+ significant strikes in 10 three-round UFC fights. For his 27-fight UFC career, he averages an astounding 6.45 significant strikes landed per minute. He also avoids 62% of his opponent’s significant strike attempts while maintaining a respectable ground game, landing on average 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage and defending 74% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. The slight on his recent record is that two of his three most recent wins were versus fellow old-timers Tony Ferguson and Jim Miller. Versus younger opponents, he landed a spectacular first-round knockout against Grant Dawson but was brutally KO’d against Jalin Turner in December 2023.
Bobby Green is by far the biggest test Paddy Pimblett has faced yet. Pimblett is a social media favorite because he has an entertaining personality and a great sense of humor. He also has an impressive highlight reel with 15 finishes in 21 professional victories. Additionally, he has three respectable defeats, all coming in Cage Warriors versus opponents who eventually made their way over to major MMA organizations. Most of the issues with Paddy don’t come from his losses but instead his victories. He is 5-0 in the UFC versus less than stellar competition. Additionally, he was awarded a decision victory versus Jared Gordon in December 2022, which he probably didn’t deserve (23 of 24 media scorecards at mmadecisions.com had Gordon winning, 11 didn’t even have Pimblett winning a round). On paper things are not great for Pimblett either, his significant strike defense rate is just 41%. He is a plodder and brawler with less-than-ideal head movement.
On paper, Paddy has three things going for him: a 2-inch reach advantage, a nearly full 9 years younger than Green, and a favorable crowd. But when it comes to actual fight metrics and ability, this one isn’t even close. If Green can avoid running into a big shot, he should be able to outclass Paddy until the fight reaches the final bell.
FIGHT WINNER: Bobby Green
UFC 304 BEST BET: Bobby Green (-115) vs Pimblett, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
–
Christian Leroy “CLD” Duncan (-130) vs Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (+110)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-175) | Under 1.5 (+135)
Don’t blink because this fight has the most two-way knockout potential on the card. All three of Duncan’s UFC wins have come via KO in the first two rounds. Five of Rodrigues’s six UFC victories have come via KO. Christian Leroy Duncan is a very highly thought-of prospect with crisp hands and the accompanying power to earn main card billing in just his 5th fight in the organization. He also has great physical tools at 6’2” and a 79” reach. At this point, his biggest liability is the relatively limited MMA skill set he has shown thus far in the octagon. His striking is very good, but to reach the top of this game, you need much more than that.
Fighting Gregory Rodrigues is like fighting a 6’3” fire hydrant with baseball bats for arms. He charges ahead, and eats shots to land harder ones. Generally speaking that has worked for him. Most recently he knocked out Brad Tavares, a guy who went the distance vs current middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis, and former champ Israel Adesanya.
The circumstances around this fight are what make it tough to handicap. Rodrigues is a replacement opponent for Duncan meaning he did not have a full camp prepare for this unique opponent. Duncan has never faced an opponent with Rodrigues’ power, and Rodrigues hasn’t fought a precision fighter quite like Duncan. That said, if this fight were under neutral circumstances, Rodrigues would likely be the favorite. Additionally, Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt, although we never see him use those skills in the cage. He could potentially lean on that experience in a fight where his opponent did not have a full camp to prepare for his full arsenal.
FIGHT WINNER: Greg Rodrigues
UFC 304 BEST BET: Fight Does NOT Start Round 3 (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
–
Arnold “Almighty” Allen (-225) vs Giga “Ninja” Chikadze (+185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-245) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+185)
Arnold Allen was on the path to a title shot, but he failed the test, so many other featherweights before him failed, being locked in the cage with Max Holloway. After that, he had the thankless job of trying to fight Movsar Evloev and received UFC loss #2. However, prior to those two losses, he was 10-0 in the UFC, which should not be taken lightly. Most of those opponents weren’t exactly the cream of the crop, but victories over Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Hooker, and Calvin Kattar (knee injury) definitely count for something. That said, there are some red flags for a favorite of this magnitude. In twelve UFC fights, he has only landed higher than 50% of his attempted significant strikes twice, and for his UFC career, his significant strike accuracy rate is just 40%. He can wrestle a little but only has a 50% takedown accuracy rate and has not even attempted one in a fight since April 2021.
Giga Chikadze was the hot new prospect for a minute, but a five-round unanimous decision loss to Calvin Kattar in January 2022 halted the momentum. He has fought once since then, a decision victory versus the always-game Alex Caceres in August of 2023. Prior to Kattar ending the Chikadze hype train, he was riding high after back-to-back knockout victories versus Edson Barboza and Cub Swanson, both of whom were on two-fight win streaks before fighting Chikadze.
Chikadze is the more powerful striker, but Allen will likely have a slight speed advantage. That said, this line is a bit out of whack. I have thought that Allen is overrated for a while, and he has looked helpless in his two most recent fights versus tip-of-the-spear featherweights. Chikadze has the advantage in virtually every department but age (35). But if Allen opts for a grappling style he may find success, that said good luck closing the distance versus someone with the range and power of Chikadze.
FIGHT WINNER: Giga Chikadze
UFC 304 BEST BET: Giga Chikadze (+185) vs Allen, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
–
Nathaniel “The Prospect” Wood (-410) vs Daniel “The Pit” Pineda (+320)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-195) | Under 1.5 Rounds (+150)
Nathaniel Wood is now 30, so it may be time to ditch “The Prospect” as his nickname. Prospect or not, Wood has put together a nice UFC career. He is 7-3 in the organization, 3-1 since 2022, with the loss coming in via decision versus the dangerous Muhammad Naimov. Whatever the opposite of a prospect is, that is Daniel Pineda. At 38 years old with a 28-15 record, Pineda knows his destiny is to be an entertainer, not a UFC champion. He is 5-6, 1 NC in the organization but keeps getting his name called because he Has an exciting style, with all of his UFC victories coming inside the distance. His first stint in the octagon lasted from 2012 to 2014, and he got the call back to the big show to fight Herbert Burns in 2020. He did not waste that opportunity and won as a +230 underdog. His other win in this most recent go-round also came as a dog, +195.
Pineda is as game as they come, but he has some limitations, especially this deep into his career. Nathaniel Wood should have a striking advantage that is early and often. Wood also is a capable grappler who is unlikely to fall into one of Pineda’s submissions. That said if we do see the upset, Pineda pulling a guillotine is probably the path. I am not willing to bank on that, though.
FIGHT WINNER: Nathaniel Wood
UFC 304 BEST BET: Pass
–
Molly “Meatball” McCann (-340) vs Bruna “The Special One” Brasil (+270)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Molly McCann rose to prominence for her role in the Paddy the Baddy crew. She is great friends and a teammate with Paddy, and as such, the two have created loads of social media content together. Molly was at the peak of her power when she landed back-to-back spinning elbow KOs versus Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy. That said, the fame did not suit her well, and she was submitted in her next two fights, as an underdog against Erin Blanchfield and as a favorite against Julija Stoliarenko. She made a change and dropped down from flyweight to strawweight and returned to form with a first-round submission victory. Bruna Brasil is 1-2 in the UFC and has much less fanfare than her opponent Saturday night. Brasil is best when she can get ahead with takedowns, which may not be smart versus someone with the submission game of Molly McCann.
FIGHT WINNER: Molly McCann
UFC 304 BEST BET: Molly McCann to Win Inside The Distance (+150), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
Parlay Piece: See Below
–
Caolan “The Don” Loughran (-238) vs Jake “White Kong” Hadley (+195)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-270) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+200)
Caolan Loughran is a prospect with some heat behind his name. He came to the UFC from Cage Warriors with an 8-0 record and seven wins inside the distance. He had a tough draw in his first UFC fight as a late replacement opponent for Taylor Lapilus, losing the fight via decision as a +145 underdog. His exciting style, stereotypical Irish fighting stance and chiseled physique are perhaps reminiscent of another Irish fighter that took center stage in the sport a little over a decade ago.
Jake Hadley is a late replacement opponent for Loughran, and as such, he missed weight by 1 pound. This is perhaps a bit alarming considering this fight is at bantamweight, and Hadley has been a flyweight for his entire UFC career. Hadley will actually have a 2-inch reach advantage in this fight, but that is where the physical advantages will end. Hadley is also on a two-fight losing streak, so he is hard to trust in this position.
FIGHT WINNER: Caolan Loughran
UFC 304 BEST BET: Parlay- Caolan Loughran/Molly McCann (-120), Risk 1.2 units to Win 1
–
Modestas “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (-155) vs Marcin Prachnio (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-166) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Modestas Bukauskus is on his second chance in the UFC, and his time may be running short if he does not perform in this spot. He Lost three in a row in the UFC, went down to Cage Warriors and got two wins, then came back to the UFC and found two decision wins. However, he was recently knocked out in the second round in a fight versus Vitor Petrino. Decisions and losses do not lead to long contracts in this game. Overall, he is 3-4 in the UFC with only one win inside the distance. Conversely, he is 7-1 versus Cage Warriors level competition with six wins before the final bell. In the UFC he gets hit more than he lands and has never landed a takedown in the octagon.
Marcin Prachnio also has a losing UFC record—he is 4-5 in the organization, which leads me to believe that the loser of this bout may be headed back to the regional scene sooner rather than later. Three out of Prachnio’s four UFC victories have come against guys who have losing records in the organization. Four of his five losses in the UFC have come via knockout.
Both of these guys have been KO’d, and both of them often need the judges’ scorecards to find a victory. That said, they both also have a lot of mileage on their chins. Prachnio is actually a much better striker on paper, both offensively and defensively. He also has a much higher fight IQ.
FIGHT WINNER: Marcin Prachnio
UFC 304 BEST BET: Marcin Prachnio (+130), Risk 1 unit to win 1.3
–
Oban “The Welsh Gangster” Elliott (+130) vs Preston “Pressure” Parsons (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+120)
Oban Elliot is 1-0 in the UFC after beating Val Woodburn via decision. He also has a Contender Series victory to his name. As a pro, he is 10-2 with 5 wins via decision. Both of his losses have come via KO. Preston Parsons is 11-4 as a pro and 2-2 in the UFC. 9 of his wins have come via submission, however none of those finishes have come versus UFC talent. I expect there to be a lot of wrestling in this fight, and it should be more of the control style than BJJ.
FIGHT WINNER: Oban Elliott
UFC 304 BEST BET: Elliott/Parsons Fight Goes the Distance (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
–
Muhammad “The Punisher” Mokaev (-175) vs Manel “Starboy” Kape (+145)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Muhammad Mokaev is 11-0 and just 23 years old. He is 6-0 in the UFC with four submission victories, including against high-level grapplers Tim Elliott, Jafel Filho, and Cody Durden. I was reluctant to buy into his hype at first, but the more fights I watched, the more I became a believer. Mokaev has a legitimate path to the flyweight belt before he reaches the age of 30.
Manel Kape has been peaking after a slow start to his UFC career. He is 4-2 in the organization but riding a four-fight win streak. Additionally, he has two knockouts in a division not exactly known for power. He will have a striking advantage on paper, but that may be a bit misleading because Mokaev generally avoids exchanging on the feet at all costs. Kape has good takedown defense, but it will be tested like never before in this matchup.
FIGHT WINNER: Muhammad Mokaev
UFC 304 BEST BET: Mokaev via Submission (+380), Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.8
–
Sam “The Future” Patterson (-440) vs Kiefer “BDK” Crosbie (+340)
Over 1.5 Rounds (+140) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-180)
Sam Patterson has got back on track after a disappointing UFC debut in which he was knocked out as a -280 favorite. He won his follow-up fight via rear naked choke as a +120 underdog. Overall, he is 11-2-1 as a pro with 10 wins inside the distance. Most of his career has been spent fighting in the Middle Eastern Organization Brave CF, which is a bit unusual for a British fighter. He also has a submission win in Contender Series to his name. Kiefer Crosbie is a well-traveled fighter who had a 4-3 Bellator record before coming over to the UFC. His first fight was an action-packed brawl with Kevin Jousset in which he landed more strikes but could not fend off the submission after being taken down. These odds are a bit out of whack because Crosbie has much more experience and should be the more impactful striker. The issue is I have trouble trusting his takedown defense.
I hope Crosbie’s offense is his best defense, and as such, I am making a wager here that is completely out of line with the type of bets I usually make. Sometimes, there is a compelling argument to be made for a long shot. Crosbie is 10-4 as a pro, five of his fights have ended with him winning via first round KO, 35%. Sam Patterson is 11-2-1 with two losses coming via first-round KO, 14%. Crosbie at +340 implies he has a 22% chance of winning. I would say he has a much higher chance of winning, 35%-40%. The most likely method of his victory is via first-round KO. His odds of winning via first-round KO are +1100, which is an implied probability of 8.33%. That is not a percentage I agree with, and I put a Crosbie first-round KO victory in the 12-18% range. He has powerful hands, and Patterson has poor striking and head movement.
FIGHT WINNER: Kiefer Crosbie
UFC 304 BEST BET: Kiefer Crosbie Via 1st Round KO (+1100), Risk 1 Unit to Win 11
–
Mick Parkin (-380) vs Lukasz “The Bull” Brzeski (+300)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+140)
Mick Parkin is one of the more boring fighters in the heavyweight division. But it is understandable that he has an -0 to protect. As a professional, he is unbeaten with nine victories. He is 3-0 in the UFC with three decision wins. He wrestles and strikes just enough to control range. Lukasz Brzeski is at the bottom of the UFC heavyweight food chain. He is a tough fighter, but he is not overly skilled. That said, three of his four UFC fights have gone the distance.
Parkin has virtually zero risk of losing this fight. He also does not chase the finish; safety is his first priority.
FIGHT WINNER: Mick Parkin
UFC 304 BEST BET: Mick Parkin win via Decision (+100) vs Brzeski, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
–
Shauna “Mama B” Bannon (-192) vs Alice Ardelean (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-230) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+175)
The UFC went deep into the well of women’s flyweight talent to find a replacement opponent for Shauna Bannon (the well of women’s flyweight talent is not, in fact, deep). Overall, Bannon is 5-1 as a pro and 0-1 in the UFC, with a decision loss against Bruna Brasil. Alice Ardelean started her MMA career with a 4-5 record but has reeled off five wins. However, those opponents’ combined pro MMA record was just 8-7 for an average of 3.0 pro fights per opponent. Bannon should win this one, and I don’t expect it to be particularly exciting.
Fight Winner: Shauna Bannon
UFC 304 BEST BET: Pass
*all odds via DraftKings, 7/27/25 12:00 AM PT
–
BEST BETS RECAP
- Leon Edwards (-250) vs Muhammad, Risk 2.5 Units to Win 1
- Bobby Green (-115) vs Pimblett, Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
- Duncan/Rodrigues Fight Does NOT Start Round 3 (-125), Risk 1.25 Units to Win 1
- Giga Chikadze (+185) vs Allen, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.85
- Molly McCann to Win Inside The Distance (+150), Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.5
- Parlay- Caolan Loughran/Molly McCann (-120), Risk 1.2 units to Win 1
- Marcin Prachnio (+130) vs Bukauskus, Risk 1 unit to win 1.3
- Elliott/Parsons Fight Goes the Distance (-115), Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1
- Mokaev win via Submission (+380) vs Kape, Risk 1 Unit to Win 3.8
- Kiefer Crosbie via 1st Round KO (+1100) vs Patterson, Risk 1 Unit to Win 11
- Mick Parkin win via Decision (+100) vs Brzeski, Risk 1 Unit to Win 1
The post UFC 304 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions: Edwards vs. Muhammad appeared first on VSiN.
