MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (July 20)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Underdogs are 13-4 (76.5%, +10.88 units) in the last 17 of the head-to-head series
The ROI on this trend is 64%.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. AZ)

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 351-322 (52.2%) for +40.41 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6%.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-105 vs. BAL)

Trend: Pablo Lopez is 15-3 (+11.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 186-187 record for +16.92 units (ROI 4.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. AZ), DETROIT (+114 at TOR), HOUSTON (+110 at SEA), ATLANTA GAME 2 (+100 vs. STL)

Trend: KC is 6-1 (+5.40 units) at home vs. Chicago White Sox with starter Brady Singer
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-218 vs. CWS)

Trend: Under the total is 7-1 this season in the head-to-head series between SEA-HOU
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (-142 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-218 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-135 vs. DET), MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL), SEATTLE (-130 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague gamea since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-115 vs. SD), MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL), BOSTON (+114 at LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when the majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (-142 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAA-OAK

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA (BOTH GAMES)

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly negative at 70-28 for -2.3 units.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-218 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 208-243 record, for -4.19 units (ROI -0.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+145 vs. NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. AZ), DETROIT (+114 at TOR), HOUSTON (+110 at SEA), ATLANTA GAME 2 (+100 vs. STL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 115-138 for -18.16 units. The three-game teams are 57-59 for +2.01 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+142 vs SF)
3+ games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 vs PHI)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 127-117 for -16.15 units (-6.6% ROI) through Friday 7/19.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+114 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1591-1485 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -183.05 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-115 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (+102 at MIN), OAKLAND (-142 vs. LAA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1482-1923 (43.5%) for -194.23 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+130 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (-105 at CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at KC), BOSTON (+114 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3216-2811 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -417.08 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA GAME 1, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, COLORADO, OAKLAND

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 900-783 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.12 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL), LA DODGERS (-135 vs BOS), SEATTLE (-130 vs. HOU), TEXAS (-105 vs. BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 169-151 run (+45.93 units, ROI: 14.4%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 at KC), PLAY SEATTLE (-130 vs HOU)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 130-96 (+20.78 units, ROI: 9.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+136 vs PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 173-112 in their last 285 tries (+26.27 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+136 vs PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +145 (+20 diff), COLORADO +142 (+20 diff), LA ANGELS +120 (+26 diff), ATLANTA GAME 2 +100 (+30 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -112 (+21 diff), ATLANTA GAME 1 -130 (+35 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-COL OVER 9.5 (+1.5), MIL-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.0), BAL-TEX OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-CHC UNDER 8 (-0.8)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (49-47) at (902) MIAMI (34-63)
Trend: MIA trending Over at HOME (33-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(905) CINCINNATI (47-51) at (906) WASHINGTON (45-53)
Trend: CIN is 8-2 this season as a road favorite
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-112 at WSH)

(909) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (910) ATLANTA (53-42) (DH Game #2)
Trend: ATL trending Under at home (15-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(911) SAN FRANCISCO (47-51) at (912) COLORADO (35-63)
Trend: SF trending Over in divisional play (20-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(913) TAMPA BAY (48-49) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (59-40)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (48-27, +12.34 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs TB)

(915) DETROIT (48-50) at (916) TORONTO (44-53)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (15-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(919) BALTIMORE (59-38) at (920) TEXAS (46-51)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (14-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(921) CHICAGO-AL (27-72) at (922) KANSAS CITY (53-45)
Trend: KC better at home (32-18, +12.67 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-218 vs CWS)

(923) HOUSTON (51-46) at (924) SEATTLE (52-47)
Trend: Under the total is 7-1 this season in h2h series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(925) SAN DIEGO (50-50) at (926) CLEVELAND (59-37)
Trend: CLE good at home (31-11, +13.14 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-115 vs SD)

(929) BOSTON (53-43) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (57-41)
Trend: LAD slight Under against AL teams (8-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(931) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (932) ATLANTA (53-42) (DH Game #1)
Trend: STL not as good during the day (20-23, -9.06 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+110 at ATL)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (49-47) at (902) MIAMI (34-63)
Trend: Luis Severino is 23-7 (+15.55 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-175 at MIA)

(905) CINCINNATI (47-51) at (906) WASHINGTON (45-53)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 4-11 (-9.15 units) in home games vs teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-110 vs CIN)

(907) ARIZONA (50-48) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (47-52)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-13 (-9.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs AZ)

(911) SAN FRANCISCO (47-51) at (912) COLORADO (35-63)
Trend: SF is 14-3 (+8.08 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-170 at COL)

Trend: COL is 7-17 (-7.20 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+142 vs. SF)

(913) TAMPA BAY (48-49) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (59-40)
Trend: TB is 6-13 (-7.12 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+130 at NYY)

Trend: NYY is 13-3 (+9.45 units) at home in day games with starter Nestor Cortes in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs. TB)

(919) BALTIMORE (59-38) at (920) TEXAS (46-51)
Trend: BAL is 16-3 (+11.92 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-115 at TEX)

Trend: Max Scherzer is 12-8 (+6.03 units) as an underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-105 vs BAL)

(921) CHICAGO-AL (27-72) at (922) KANSAS CITY (53-45)
Trend: KC is 6-1 (+5.40 units) at home vs. Chicago White Sox with starter Brady Singer
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-218 vs CWS)

(923) HOUSTON (51-46) at (924) SEATTLE (52-47)
Trend: HOU is 7-1 (+6.05 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) with starter Framber Valdez in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (*if they fall into this line range, +110 currently*)

Trend: SEA is 10-2 (+7.48 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-130 vs HOU)

(927) MILWAUKEE (55-42) at (928) MINNESOTA (54-42)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 15-3 (+11.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 vs. MIL)

(929) BOSTON (53-43) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (57-41)
Trend: BOS is 6-1 (+5.85 units) on the road against NL with starter Brayan Bello
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING BOSTON (+114 at LAD)

(931) ST LOUIS (50-46) at (932) ATLANTA (53-42) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 6-11 (-7.58 units) as a shorter road underdog between line range of -105 to +130 against NL teams in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+110 at ATL)

Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends

Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
Trend: Underdogs are 13-4 (76.5%, +10.88 units) in the last 17 of the head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 64%.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs AZ)

Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
Trend: Colorado is 6-21 (22.2%, -12.53 units) in their last 27 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -46.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+142 vs SF)

Series #26: Baltimore at Texas, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 19-8 (70.4%, +13.25 units) in the last 27 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 49.1%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-105 vs. BAL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 7/22)

The post MLB Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (July 20) appeared first on VSiN.