MLB Best Bets Today May 6
Ten games are on the betting board as we start a new week in Major League Baseball. One mid-afternoon game gets us going in Philly between the Giants and Phillies, but the rest of the slate is late as nine new series get underway. It is an interesting card to get us going for the first full week of May.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 6:
Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals (-142, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Brewers and Royals will be racing the rain tonight as some very dangerous storms are moving through the Great Plains. This game was actually moved up a half hour because of the oncoming weather, so they should be able to get it in.
Bryse Wilson gets the call for Milwaukee and Cole Ragans will go for the Royals. Ragans had a major blow-up against an outstanding Baltimore lineup that accounts for half of the runs he has allowed in seven starts this season. He gave up seven runs in 1.2 innings of work. In his other six starts, Ragans has allowed seven runs in 35 innings.
The Brewers got off to a very hot start offensively this season, but they’ve posted just a 96 wRC+ over the last 14 days. They’re walking a lot, but Ragans has only issued 13 walks on the season. They’re also striking out 25% of the time in that span and Ragans has a 28.9% K% thus far. This should be a good matchup for Ragans, especially as the teams look to get this one in with that rain looming. Nobody wants to sit out a delay or have a suspended game that may need to be completed tomorrow.
On the Milwaukee side, they’ve gotten some good production from Wilson, who has a 3.00 ERA. The 4.57 FIP is high, but that’s a byproduct of a low strikeout rate. Wilson has made two starts since returning to the rotation and allowed three runs on seven hits in 10.1 innings of work. He’s allowed just a 34.4% Hard Hit%, so he’s inducing a lot of weak contact. The Brewers have had a lot of success developing cutters with pitchers and Wilson has relied heavily on his for a second straight season. He was solid last season with a 2.58 ERA and a 4.13 FIP in 76.2 innings and he’s been similarly solid this season.
The Royals only own an 84 wRC+ over the last 14 days. While they’ve still been able to score some runs, their contact quality has waned. They don’t strike out a lot, but also rarely walk. Wilson has done a good job of staying off the barrel this season and I think he induces a lot of weak contact tonight as well.
The primary relievers for Milwaukee are well-rested. KC has a couple more bullpen concerns, but I also expect Ragans to work deeper into the game than Wilson and that negates some of those thoughts.
Pick: Brewers/Royals Under 8.5 (-105)
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (-112, 7.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
It is a big night in Wrigleyville with the return of Justin Steele to the Cubs rotation. Yu Darvish and the Padres come to town in hopes of ruining the celebration. Steele threw 63 pitches in his lone rehab start five days ago and allowed three runs on six hits to Kansas City’s Triple-A squad over 3.1 innings of work. Steele admitted to some rust early in that start and you can’t blame him. He got hurt on Opening Day and only went 4.2 innings against the Rangers. So, that’s a total of eight innings in actual game conditions since Spring Training.
The conditions will help both pitchers at Wrigley today, but Steele’s predominantly a ground ball guy anyway. Maybe it’ll help with any mistakes that he makes, but I think the weather is more likely to help Darvish, who allows more fly balls. Darvish is making just his second start back and he went five scoreless against the Reds last time out with three strikeouts and zero walks.
Darvish pounded the zone, got ahead early, and saw his velo return after a drop in his April 14 start against the Dodgers. It wasn’t his most dominant outing, but he threw over 50% cutters, so I wouldn’t have expected a ton of swing and miss given his pitch usage. I’d expect a little bit more here.
But, ultimately, in a game where Steele is going to be limited, I like San Diego’s bullpen over Chicago’s. The Cubs have had all sorts of bullpen issues this season and rank 22nd in ERA and 21st in FIP. The Padres rank in the top half of the league in FIP and 17th in ERA. Their bullpen is also more rested than Chicago’s. Plus, I’d expect Chicago’s to have a bit heavier of a lift, which typically means lower-quality arms are called into action.
The addition of Luis Arraez over the weekend adds another element to San Diego’s lineup. They were already one of the top teams in K% and Arraez’s high batting average and OBP make up for some of the loss with Juan Soto’s elite BB% now in New York. San Diego is third in wRC+, while Chicago is 13th. The Padres are also third in road wRC+, a relevant metric because of how tough of a hitting environment Petco Park provides.
Pick: Padres -108
Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers (-298, 8.5)
10:10 p.m. ET
Speaking of returns, we have another here with Walker Buehler on the bump for the Dodgers. This will be Buehler’s first start since June 10, 2022, so it has been a hell of a long time coming for him. The Marlins will send out rookie Roddery Munoz for his third career MLB outing.
This is a one-sided handicap for me here, as I’m looking at Munoz and looking at that Walks Allowed prop again. Munoz barely got us there in that start against the Rockies last week, as he walked his second batter in the sixth inning. It was a sweat to say the least, but the Rockies were absurdly undisciplined, posting a 37.2% O-Swing% per Statcast and a 45.1% O-Swing% per Sports Info Solutions. Munoz did have a 73.9% F-Strike%, which was a lot higher than his 50% mark in his debut start back on April 20, but the Rockies expanded the zone a ton and swung a lot.
The Rockies have the second-highest O-Swing% per Sports Info Solutions and Statcast. The Dodgers have the fourth-lowest per Sports Info Solutions and Statcast. Where Colorado has the highest Swing% in baseball per SIS and second-highest per Statcast, the Dodgers rank a little bit better than league average.
In other words, they’re not going to chase the way that the Rockies did. Colorado also swings and misses more than any other team. The Dodgers are way more selective. LA also has the fourth-lowest F-Strike%. Pitchers are more afraid to attack their hitters and try to make finer pitches with all the big names in that lineup.
A guy like Munoz who is making his third career MLB start is likely to fall into that trap. Remember, while he’s only walked three of 41 MLB hitters, he walked 14 of 77 in the minors against only nine strikeouts in four starts this season. As I wrote about prior to his May 1 start, he has a 12.1% BB% in the minor leagues for his career and a 15.7% BB% in Triple-A.
Per DraftKings, we’re getting Over 2.5 Walks at +140 and I think that is an excellent gamble for the price.
Pick: Roddery Munoz Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+140)
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