Tennis Best Bets: Miami Open picks and predictions for Monday, March 25

Miami open preview and tennis best bets for Monday, March 25

The second half of the “Sunshine Double” is the Miami Open, which takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida over the next week. This tournament, much like the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, is one of the biggest non-majors of the year. So, even though Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal aren’t in the Miami Open field, this is still a loaded event for both the men and the women. With that in mind, we’ll have you covered with tennis best bets throughout. That continues with picks for Monday, March 25th. Keep reading for some of my favorite plays of the day, but make sure you check the Pro Picks page for more. I like to see how the odds move throughout the day and I tend to add a few picks each day.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

2024 Results: 166-186 (+9.84 units)

Madison Keys vs. Elena Rybakina

Keys looked pretty miserable at Indian Wells, but she has bounced back in Miami. The American comes into this match after straight-set wins over Diana Shnaider and Xinyu Wang. Her rally tolerance has really picked up in the last two weeks, and she now faces an out-of-form Elena Rybakina. The 2022 Wimbledon champion needed three sets to beat both Clara Tauson and Taylor Townsend, two players with a lot of flaws. So, she’s looking a bit vulnerable heading into a meeting with Keys, who is playing in her home state and absolutely loves these conditions.

Keys is one of the best servers in the world when she’s locked in, and she also packs a lot of punch from the baseline. Those strengths happen to mirror Rybakina’s, which is probably why the American has found some success in this series. Keys is 2-1 in three meetings with Rybakina, and the one loss went to three sets. With that in mind, Keys forcing a decider seems very likely. But I’m just taking her to cover 3.5 games. And I’m also sprinkling her to win outright.

Bet: Keys +3.5 Games (-105 – 1.5 units) & Keys ML (+225 – 0.5 units)

Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maria Sakkari

Sakkari is coming off a run to the Indian Wells final, but I think the wrong player is favored in this match. It was big for Sakkari, a player with top-10 talent, to find some success in the desert. She was really struggling towards the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024. But I don’t think her struggles are completely behind her. And Sakkari just so happens to be playing one of the up-and-coming competitors in the women’s game. Kalinskaya is 14-6 since the start of 2024 and made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and a final in Dubai. The latter was a run that included wins over Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek.

Kalinskaya is just a player with an incredibly sturdy baseline game. So, even though Sakkari has real power from back there, I trust Kalinskaya to redirect the pace and make far fewer mistakes. Kalinskaya is also a little more reliable as both a server and returner right now. That said, this has the potential to be a very close match, but I like Kalinskaya to pull it out.

Bet: Kalinskaya ML (+130)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Ben Shelton

Musetti is one of the most talented players in the men’s game, but he has very high highs and very low lows. However, the Italian has found his game over the last two weeks. At Indian Wells, Musetti earned a win over Denis Shapovalov and then pushed Holger Rune in a match that was closer than the final score suggested. Then Musetti got to Miami and earned a dominant win over Roman Safiullin. Musetti just has firepower from all over the court, as he can rip the ball with his forehand and one-handed backhand. He just needs to do everything he can to prevent the unforced errors from racking up. And he needs to make some first serves. He did both against Safiullin.

Shelton is definitely a tough player to face, as he has more power than pretty much anyone in the world. But this just feels like a match in which there will be very few service breaks. So, I feel good about taking Musetti to win a set — and sprinkling the moneyline. Shelton can always count on his talent keeping him in matches, but Musetti is right there when it comes to natural ability. The Italian also happens to be loving the small cheering section that is following him around in Miami.

Bet: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-132 – 1.5 units) & Musetti ML (+230 – 0.5 units)