Indian Wells best bets for Sinner vs. Alcaraz
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’ll provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. With that in mind, we’re winding down with the ATP and WTA stop at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. All of the top players were in the field for this event, and you won’t want to miss the rest of it. We’re getting an epic semi-final showdown on Saturday, March 16th, with Jannik Sinner facing Carlos Alcaraz. Keep reading for how I see that going. Also, make sure you check out the Pro Picks page for bets from other VSiN analysts. Gill Alexander will surely has some thoughts on this match.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2023 Record: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Record: 148-172 (-2.00 units)
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Sinner has taken the tennis world by storm with his play in the last eight months. Beginning with his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto last August, the Italian has undoubtedly been the best player in tennis. Sinner has won four titles since that landmark victory in Canada, with one of them being his first ever major. Sinner went to Melbourne for the Australian Open and went through Andrey Rublev, Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev to win his first Grand Slam. He then backed it up with a title in Rotterdam, giving him an unblemished 16-0 record since the start of 2024. Meanwhile, Sinner’s rise happened to coincide with a slight dip in level from Alcaraz. That leads us to this tournament, where Alcaraz is the defending champion. But the oddsmakers have the Spaniard as the underdog.
Alcaraz has experienced some lulls since winning Wimbledon last year, but a lot of that had to do with fatigue. He has played a lot of matches since bursting onto the scene, and last year was quite the grind for a player his age. That pretty simply explains what went wrong at the end of 2023. Then, Alcaraz had to begin the 2024 season without his coach in his box. Juan Carlos Ferrero, who is very close with the 20-year-old and really drills home strategy, had knee surgery that didn’t allow him to travel to Australia. Alcaraz suffered a disappointing loss to Alexander Zverev in Melbourne, and he then took some lumps on clay in the Golden Swing. But things are really starting to stabilize for Alcaraz, who now has his coach back in the box. And we’re starting to see what Alcaraz worked on in the short offseason.
Since the start of the new season, Alcaraz has a hold percentage of 89.0%. Last year, his hold percentage was down at 85.4%. That’s not a bad number by any means, but Alcaraz would be close to unbeatable if he ever flirted with a 90.0% hold percentage. Well, he’s finally coming close to that mark now. In his win over Zverev in the quarterfinals of this event, Alcaraz was peppering his targets deep in the corners. He made 79.0% of his first serves in that dominant 6-3, 6-1 victory, and he also won a ridiculous 87.0% of his first serve points. Alcaraz was regularly getting free points with the ball on his racquet. If he can continue to do that, he’ll be right there with Sinner at the top of the men’s game. And his elite serve-and-volley game will help. All of that makes it interesting to see Alcaraz as a ‘dog here.
Although Sinner and Alcaraz might be on equal footing, the conditions in Indian Wells give the Spaniard a pretty big edge. Sinner has gotten the better of Alcaraz by hammering shots deep in the court and forcing him to react quickly. But the slow courts in the desert give Alcaraz time to set up and dictate where he wants the point to go. On top of that, the courts also make it hard for opponents to even get the ball by Alcaraz. Sinner has an extremely live arm and can pound the ball all over the court. But Alcaraz should be able to track those shots down and ask some more questions of Sinner. That might get to the Italian, which is exactly what happened when Alcaraz earned a 7-6 (4), 6-3 win over Sinner in last year’s BNP Paribas Open.
Alcaraz has also taken this tournament a little more seriously than others in the past. Instead of going for flashy winners and occasionally letting his insane talent get in his way, the Spaniard has been a little more willing to be strategic here. In fact, his wins over Medvedev in last year’s final and Zverev in this year’s quarterfinals were two of the best matches Alcaraz has ever played. If he’s not swinging big and ripping the ball into the net, or missing the court entirely, he’s damn near impossible to beat. With his combination of speed, athleticism and strength, he is capable of out-grinding anybody in gritty conditions. I think he’ll come with that approach here.
It’s also just hard to ignore that Sinner has never had odds short of +150 against Alcaraz before. Last year, he was +150 to beat Alcaraz at Indian Wells, +200 to beat him in Miami and +300 to beat him in Beijing. Of course, Sinner has made more improvements than anybody on tour in the last 12 months. But it feels a little weird to be sitting here with Alcaraz available at this price. He has looked to be in top form since arriving in California. When he’s at that level, you simply have to play him as an underdog.
Lean: Alcaraz ML (+118) – This would be a best bet for me if I didn’t already have Alcaraz to win the tournament at +430.
Long-Term Thoughts
This is a match that should be extremely interesting to watch, and the aftermath will be fascinating. After having beaten up on Djokovic in the Australian Open final, Sinner has the potential to really shape the market with a convincing win here. Djokovic is the betting favorite to win Wimbledon and the US Open, and Alcaraz is favored to win the French open. But if Sinner beats Alcaraz on a slower court like this one, he could find himself right up there at the top of the odds boards for the next three Slams. There would be no reason to doubt he can beat either player, as he will have proven to be relatively condition-proof.
Friday’s Plays
Kostyuk Over 6.5 Games Won (-115 – 2 units)
Sakkari +1.5 Sets (-125 – 1.5 units) & Sakkari ML (+230 – 0.5 units)
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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