NFL Free Agency Begins Handicapping Season
Now that football season has ended, and before NFL free agency kicked off, I finally had time to read some of the many books perfectly aligned on the bookshelf not related to the JFK assassination. With added time, I dove headfirst into the new Billy Walters book Gambler, with a keen interest in his handicapping method. Since I am relatively new to the sports betting world, I developed my own method of handicapping teams—and wanted to understand how the greatest handicapper of all time went about his process.
In 1999, I met Walters (he would never remember) before the Falcons/Broncos Super Bowl in Las Vegas. The group I was with toured his new golf course on a cold, wet, rainy January day in Vegas and then went to lunch. We discussed the game, and he felt the bookmakers set the line perfectly. He saw slightly more value in the Under. His breakdown of the game over club sandwiches made me realize how much work he put into studying the nuances of the game. And how similar his preparation was to mine while working in the NFL.
Walters’ book is an autobiography of his fascinating life filled with great success and few downturns. With each turn of the page, it’s clear Walters demonstrates the unique ability so many high achievers possess—they can make the complex simple.
Football is a complicated sport, yet when he handicaps teams, Walters reduces the game to its simplest form—what causes a team to win. Walters turns the complexities of handicapping into a simple formula that relies on the core elements of winning. He understands the value of the quarterback and grades each one accordingly. He understands the importance of having a great rusher, who can change the game in the fourth quarter and close out games, so he grades the non-quarterback positions that directly affect winning. Like all good football people, Walters chooses his information wisely and doesn’t judge the outcome from the scoreboard like most fans will.
Walters understands he is in the information business, therefore not all information is valuable, and not all information is important or correct. For example, when Brendon Aiyuk made a great catch in the Lions game off the defender’s head, Walters would have taken the yardage out of the gamebook. It was a once-in-a-lifetime play, so why use that as a valid yardage number? Makes sense right?
When I broke down opponents, certain plays were not part of the evaluation because they were more luck than execution. Separating the luck, or “fortunate bounce” plays from real plays is a huge part of any handicapping system.
Reading the book after the Super Bowl was beneficial as it reinforced my belief in deeply studying the teams in the off-season, which I have always done during my time in the league. For each team, I will make a list of the coaching changes, the free agents a team could potentially lose. Then review their blue and red chip players, their quarterback rating and keep a close eye on players they gained and lost.
Al Davis was obsessed with the GAINS AND LOSSES sheets. He would study them as if he was looking for a hidden treasure from a map. He wanted to visualize in his head what the new configuration of the team would become. Many websites will display team needs for each team—but as Walters makes clear in his book, filling all the needs doesn’t adjust your power rating. Filling the positions that determine winning matters most, from players to coaches.
When Sean Payton was at the combine, you heard him discuss his method of off-season planning which came from legendary Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells. We both learned this from him, as Parcells would tell me, “Kid, these team needs lists are meaningless. You need to separate them into three categories: MUST WANT NEED.”
The MUST category is the most critical because those needs allow you to compete for a divisional title. If you don’t fill them correctly, then the rest falls apart. The WANT is something you want to improve but isn’t completely necessary for next season—which means don’t allocate many resources to filling them. The NEED area is for the bottom of the roster and overall depth.
Parcells understood how to prioritize, and so does Walters. If a team fills their offensive guard position which was a weakness, Walters won’t change their power rating. If they change quarterbacks for the better, then he will.
For example, last night, Russell Wilson indicated that he plans to sign with the Steelers once the league year begins. Even though Wilson isn’t an elite quarterback, he is still an improvement over Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, so there needs to be a slight adjustment for the Steelers.
Another example of filling a need and creating media hype happened last night as well. Baker Mayfield resigned with the Bucs for a second-level value quarterback contract, a three-year deal at an average of $33 million per year—which is good for the Bucs. Mayfield was good but not great last year. He can help a team win when he has the right supporting cast and the other two phases of the team contribute. Mayfield doesn’t move the needle. By signing him back, the Bucs won’t improve their power rating, even though the media will extoll the virtues of his return.
Walters never falls into the media hype trap when it comes to his handicapping. Because he is clinical in his approach, he doesn’t let outside forces drive his numbers. The value of the position, the real talent of the player, is the only thing he cares about. He monitors local beat writers all season to get updates from within the team, and he evaluates their accuracy. Local writers can provide more details of the day-to-day thinking of the team and how certain players are performing. Walters is relentless in monitoring the data.
As NFL free agency starts this week, all serious handicappers need to monitor the teams on a daily basis. Review their coaching changes, have their 2023 power rating updated, have their quarterback rating fine-tuned and then closely examine their gains and losses. Don’t overvalue the current draft, as we know only a handful of players from the current draft impact the team. Make sure you evaluate all the quarterbacks in the draft, as they can change the power ratings based on their play.
Review last year’s draft to determine if those players can make an impact. Tyree Wilson of the Raiders is an example. He wasn’t a factor last season—even though he played, rushing inside and outside, but more effectively inside. Can he take a positive step this season since he plays a position that determines the outcome of games? Most importantly, don’t adjust their power rating until the summer, when all the player movement has ended.
Without spoiling the book, once the season starts, Walters adjusts his power ratings for each game, using game factors to set his number. He has developed specific game factors for each week and doesn’t let the last week weigh too heavily on his current handicap. Walters treats the NFL as a year-round job, and so should all of us. And the year begins now with NFL free agency. Get your pencils ready—and let’s keep track together.
The post Michael Lombardi: NFL Free Agency Begins Handicapping Season appeared first on VSiN.
