Toronto Blue Jays 2024 preview
Every season is a big one for a team with a high payroll and a fan base filled with expectations, but something feels quite a bit larger about this season for the Toronto Blue Jays. Last season, they won 89 games and snuck into the postseason for the second straight year before bowing out with a 2-0 loss in the AL Wild Card Round…for the second straight year.
In fact, the Blue Jays are 0-6 in Wild Card games over their last three playoff appearances and haven’t won a postseason game since 2016. A lot of hard work in the regular season has gone by the wayside, as the Jays have gone 272-214 over the last three seasons, winning 89, 92, and 91 games.
Only one team can be the champion and measuring the season by that criterion is really short-sighted, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a lot of people that would label this run “successful” because of what has happened come October. On some level, you have to wonder if this is enough and if the core group of players that Toronto has relied on during this stretch is actually capable of more.
With costs rising, players aging, and free agency approaching, the Blue Jays are under a lot of pressure this season.
2024 Toronto Blue Jays Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Mar. 4)
World Series: +2000
AL Pennant: +950
AL East: +400
Win Total: 86.5 (-125/-105)
Make Playoffs: Yes -140 / No +120
Toronto Blue Jays Preview: Offense
The Blue Jays were a little snakebitten on offense last season. They were 10th in wOBA overall, but ranked 19th in wOBA with runners in scoring position. They were a top-10 offense by wRC+, but finished 14th in runs scored because of their offensive maladies in higher-leverage spots. They also only hit 188 homers, which ranked 16th.
We wondered how the ballpark alterations at Rogers Centre would have an impact on offense and it seemed to actually hurt the Jays, who finished 21st with just 85 long balls north of the border. Their 10.6% HR/FB% at home ranked 26th. Normally we see ballpark adjustments benefit the home team, but that was not the case here, as the Jays offense fell victim to the fences either moving back or getting taller in various areas of the outfield.
The pitching staff did allow 25 fewer runs at home, so it wasn’t a total loss, but Toronto just didn’t get enough from the sluggers. The biggest problem was a drop-off from leadoff hitter George Springer, whose 104 wRC+ was easily the lowest of his career in a full season. Springer’s contact authority fell off, even though he actually made more contact than he ever had. When you think about the aging curve and players approaching 35, those are some signs to monitor.
Manager John Schneider says that Springer will keep leading off, but I think that’s a detriment unless we get a big bounce back. Springer’s battled a lot of injuries throughout his career and he’ll turn 35 in September.
Obviously Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a huge piece of the puzzle. The 25-year-old seems to be working on something different every offseason and I can’t help but wonder if maybe it’s time to just let him be, as he went from a breakout 2021 season with a 166 wRC+ and 48 homers to a 133 wRC+ and 32 homers in 2022 and then a 118 wRC+ with 26 HR last season. He acknowledged that injuries played a role and his body type will always draw ire, along with his high ground ball rate, but it seems like paralysis by overanalysis at times.
Bo Bichette is a great player and the supporting cast is interesting, especially Alejandro Kirk, whose bat I really like at a position where offense is fleeting to say the least. But, the ceiling for this unit, at least to me, is defined by Springer and Guerrero.
If Springer and Guerrero don’t rebound, but Kirk, Dalton Varsho, and newcomer Justin Turner can pick up the slack, this will be another high-floor offense, but to get over the hump, it feels like they need something more
Toronto Blue Jays Preview: Pitching
That sentiment seemed to ramp up a few notches with the report that Kevin Gausman was dealing with “general shoulder fatigue” during the first week of March. An MRI revealed no structural damage, but the starting rotation is the most concerning part of the ballclub in my eyes and a healthy, productive Gausman is paramount.
The Blue Jays starting staff actually finished in the top five in ERA last season and ranked seventh in FIP. Gausman did a lot of the heavy lifting there with a 3.16 ERA, 2.97 FIP, and 2.3 more fWAR than any other pitcher on the staff. On the whole, this was a good rotation, with Gausman as a true No. 1 and good seasons from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi, who all made at least 32 starts and threw at least 167.2 innings.
Berrios had a 3.65 ERA with a 3.99 FIP, Bassitt had a 3.60 ERA with a 4.28 FIP, and Kikuchi, one of the surprises of the season, had a 3.86 ERA with a 4.12 FIP. And, yet, Gausman had a 3.87 xERA, Berrios was at 4.55, Bassitt was at 4.04, and Kikuchi was at 4.27. There are some negative regression signs across the map with that quartet, who all finished at 76.4% or higher in the LOB% department. League average for starters was 72.2%.
League average ERA and FIP for starters last season was 4.45 and 4.42, so the Jays are still positioned relatively well if those guys regress, but it will be very hard for them to reach their expectations with Gausman missing time and regression from multiple players.
In a perfect world, Gausman is fine and multiple starters outperform their advanced metrics again. In the real world, Bassitt turned 35 in February and just threw his first 200-inning season. He’s thrown 539 innings over the last three seasons and had 398.1 innings in his first six MLB seasons combined. He also had huge home/road splits, but was fortunate to throw 20 more innings at home. He gave up 19 HR in 90 road IP.
It’s possible that Kikuchi is fixed, but his previous best ERA was 4.41 and his best FIP was 4.61 in a non-COVID year. Who knows what Alek Manoah or the rest of the depth starters may provide.
This is a solid bullpen that comfortably ranked in the top 10 in ERA and FIP. That was even with a mild injury that took closer Jordan Romano out for a bit. I’m truly not enamored with the depth in the pen, but a healthy starting staff for the Jays will work deep into a lot of games.
Toronto Blue Jays Player to Watch
SP Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi ran Hard Hit% marks in the 47% range in 2021 and 2022 and cut it down to 42.4% in 2023, which was still above the league average of 39.2%. He did cut his Barrel% from 14.8% to 9.0%, so that was huge. But, he still ranked in the 29th percentile in Barrel% at 9.0% and was in the 24th percentile in Hard Hit%. That is a lot of hard contact to allow, especially with a 12th percentile Average Exit Velocity.
However, Kikuchi cut his BB% nearly in half and maintained the best K% of his career as a full-time starter. He adjusted during the season as well. He allowed 22 HR in 93.1 innings in the first half and just five HR in 74.1 innings in the second half. I’m skeptical. I’m also not as down on him as I thought I might be.
Toronto Blue Jays Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I don’t have a strong opinion here. Initially, I expected to like the Under 86.5 here because of the strength of the rest of the division and my concerns about the starting rotation. However, the way that Rogers Centre plays now may allow these guys to outperform their metrics.
If Springer truly isn’t on the wrong side of the aging curve, he should improve, leading to overall improvement from the offense. The tough part here is that the floor is really high for this team with immense amounts of talent. The worst-case scenario in a lot of areas probably still means roughly a .500 record. They’ve also gone over this total three straight years and hadn’t quite cracked the pitching code to the degree they did last season.
A razor-thin lean to the Under, but I think this will be a tough team to figure out most of the season.
Slight Lean: Under 86.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
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