Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, GOLDEN STATE, DENVER, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-NYK, ATL-BKN, HOU-PHX, MIA-DEN, WSH-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-BKN, OKC-SAS, HOU-PHX, WSH-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIL-CHA, PLAY UNDER in MIA-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Match: PLAY OVER instead in WSH-LAL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 171-116 SU and 169-110 ATS (60.6%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
2/29: PHOENIX vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-8.5 vs HOU)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 53-28 SU & 52-27-2 ATS (65.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
2/29: PHOENIX vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-8.5 vs HOU)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 28-25 SU and 32-21 ATS (60.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
2/29: DENVER vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIA)
* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 52-42 SU and 50-43-1 ATS (53.8%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
2/29: DENVER vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIA)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 16-12 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/29: DENVER vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIA)
* Over the total was 99-66 (60%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
2/29: Over the total in PHOENIX-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
* Over the total was 73-50 (59.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/29: Over the total in DENVER-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213.5)
* Under the total was 48-44-1 (52.2%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/29: Under the total in MIAMI-DENVER
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213.5)
* Over the total was 48-33 (59.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/29: Over the total in PHOENIX-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
Fade ATLANTA is 15-19 SU and 10-24 ATS (29.4%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
2/29 at Brooklyn
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+1.5 at BKN)
Fade MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 21-15 SU but 13-23 ATS (36.1%).
2/29 at Charlotte
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-12 at CHA)
ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 25-8 SU and 25-8 ATS (75%).
2/29 vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-6.5 vs UTA)
WASHINGTON is 18-10 ATS (64.3%) as a road underdog this season but 9-19 ATS (32.1%) as a home underdog.
2/29 at LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 at LAL)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* BROOKLYN was 18-9 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
2/29: Under the total in ATLANTA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)
* GOLDEN STATE is 21-49 SU and 21-49 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
2/29: Fade GOLDEN STATE at New York
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at NYK)
* MIAMI is 26-20 SU and 29-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
2/29: MIAMI at Denver
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+5 at DEN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 142-29 SU but just 70-99-2 ATS (41.4%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (*only if they become double-digit favorites vs WSH (currently -9.5)*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-58 (57%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 143-113 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 176-133 (57%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIL-CHA (o/u at 217.5), PLAY OVER in OKC-SAS (o/u at 236)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS
Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 120-42 SU and 100-60-2 ATS (62.5%) in their last 162 tries.
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-1.5 vs ATL)
UNUSUAL SHOOTIN PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 206-226 SU and 193-235-4 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+5 at DEN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 214-215 SU and 191-226-10 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at NYK)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 113-140 SU and 112-135-6 ATS (45.3%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at NYK)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 25-50 SU but 41-34 ATS (54.7%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING SAN ANTONIO (+11 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 47-12 SU and 37-20-2 ATS (64.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 at SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (151-168 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (206-192 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING SAN ANTONIO (+11 vs OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 57-56 SU and 65-46-3 ATS (58.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 at LAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 171-213 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 22-97 SU and 49-67-3 ATS (42.2%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+9.5 at LAL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +8.5 (+1.9), 2. UTAH +6.5 (+1.7), 3. ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+2.2), 2. DENVER -5 (+0.7), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -11 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +8.5 (+3.6), 2. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+2.2), 3. UTAH +6.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11 (+2.6), 2. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+1.5), 3. DENVER -5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-BKN OVER 223 (+3.8), 2. UTA-ORL OVER 225 (+2.0), 3. MIL-CHA OVER 217.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-LAL UNDER 243.5 (-0.5), 2. HOU-PHX UNDER 233 (-0.3), 3. OKC-SAS UNDER 236 (-0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +6.5 (+3.9), 2. HOUSTON +8.5 (+1.9), 3. NEW YORK +4.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -5 (+2.0), 2. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+1.9), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -11 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-BKN OVER 223 (+4.8), 2. WSH-LAL OVER 243.5 (+3.2), 3. GSW-NYK OVER 222 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-ORL UNDER 225 (-3.8), 2. MIL-CHA UNDER 217.5 (-0.5), 3. MIA-DEN UNDER 213.5 (-0.3)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(541) ATLANTA at (542) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 12-1 ATS in the last 13 of the ATL-BRK series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(539) GOLDEN STATE at (540) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the GSW-NYK series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
(545) HOUSTON at (546) PHOENIX
* The last five games of the HOU-PHO series in Phoenix went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(547) MIAMI at (548) DENVER
* Road teams have won the last four ATS in the MIA-DEN series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(535) MILWAUKEE at (536) CHARLOTTE
* The last five games of the MIL-CHA series in Charlotte went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(543) OKLAHOMA CITY at (544) SAN ANTONIO
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last six ATS vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(537) UTAH at (538) ORLANDO
* Road teams have won the last three ATS in the UTA-ORL series
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(549) WASHINGTON at (550) LA LAKERS
* Underdogs are on a 5-1 ATS surge in the WAS-LAL series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
The post VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – February 29 appeared first on VSiN.
